Trump is a Winning Machine

housing starts seem to be way up in North FL. National builders are having to go around the municipal process just to keep up with quarterly projections/demands. These are presold units. On the other hand 45% of loan originations were from refis/helocs.

 

After thinking about it and even though I am skeptical about Trump's tariffs and trade war; the thought of Warren, Bernie, Beto, or Harris running the show scares me even more. The recession cycle is due to come around.

 

Say what? Motofun532 and I were having a reasonable discussion tagging off the yield curve post and what the future may hold. You were the one to first jump in with GDP back on post 10885. Then throwing out how I don't know shit about economics and it's more of my OMB blah blah blah. Where is a virtual fly swatter when you need one?

 

They are also strong in Des Moines but almost flat over Iowa.

I pulled this off the gov.
US housing starts dropped 0.9 percent from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,253 thousand units in June 2019, compared to market expectations of 1,261 thousand and following a revised 0.4 percent fall in May.

 

Deflect much.


You made a comment that the economy has been growing for the past ten years. Implying that Obama created a stellar economy. I responded by saying growth is one thing but growth rate is what is important.

I never made any statement to the fact that you don’t know shit about economics. Please show me where I stated this. (This is the second time you attributed me to stating something that I have not stated). But from reading some of your responses, I came to the conclusion that you don’t know as much as you think you know about economics. If you want to say that you don't know shit, I can also live with this assessment.

Oh and I’m still waiting for you to tell me how anyone can have a meaningful conversation with regards to the strength of the economy with out talking about GDP.

 

or the thought process is he is going to take it to the mat in his 2nd term when he wont have to worry about re-election

 

You have me beat in that category by a huge margin. Instead of talking yield curve in a rational way like Motofun532 and I were, you jump in with GDP and attacking me because you simply can't help yourself. You enjoy it too much. Kinda sad in some ways. But hey, if I brightened your day just a little than all the better. Have a good day Garth. Mkay......

 

You don’t pay very good attention do you? We’ve already been over this.
Run along with your tail tucked. LOL

 

In general I agree with a ton of your post (yep worries me also). Of course while engineered is certainly an overstatement there are media and Democrat people on record as saying a a recession would be a good thing to get rid of Trump. Also the ability to cause one is limited while the ability to add one more straw on the camel is high.

The biggest thing is that the probability of a recession happening next year at any time is higher than what people think. So if someone screams the sky is falling they will be right sooner rather than later.

Oh and where I think the media/Democrats do have some power is once a recession occurs they can either pile on the propaganda and reduce consumer confidence further or dismiss it and at a minimum let consumer confidence stay flat. That could deepen the recession if/when it occurs.

Lastly your comments on Obama area bit rose colored glasses IMO. His growth was anemic and total % working sucked. Stock market is more a prediction of the future outlook than present also (most misuse it as a barometer IMO) Also on Obama the entry to his 1st term was a plummet in results so the road up was easier. Also look at the fed rate under Obama zero for almost the entire time), the amount of money printed was obscene and I was shocked we did not get Carter level inflation. Compare that to the rate under Trump where it has risen from essentially zero to now with a single cut. Of course there are also people that think everything Obama did was bad which is not true.

 

Ummm check your dates as your from to are reversed.

Also if you are discussing the Obama years you should do January 20, 2009 – January 20, 2017 and not cherry pick it. Just as Trump should start in January 20, 2017. A alternative that does hold some weight is to go from the time elected until the next president was elected, certainly the market and business start anticipating changes then.

 

I agree with most of what you posted in both posts as well. Typo on the one date obviously. Should of been March 2009. That was the lowest point under 44 and less than 2 months after taking office. The market was roughly 1000 points higher on Jan 20, 2009 (don't have time to check the the exact # at this moment). Gotta roll.

 

I bought a house three weeks ago and we were the 9th of 14 closings booked that day. They said it was a slow day. Anecdotal but encouraging.

 

You guys missed the part where I said only a fool attributes the state of the economy to a President. True, he can say "A deal with China is near" and the market will jump but by the next day it is over. The market is the quintessential crowd humiliator.

 

https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/1161738886806065152

 

Exactly the point of my rose colored glasses comment. You do performance from the lowest point. That would be like saying the fed rate has climbed 100% on Trump by ignoring the latest. When discussing a term it is only valid IMO to discuss from elected to replacement elected or sworn in to replacement sworn in. Otherwise you are cooking the books. Shoot if you wanted to make Bush look good cut it off once the polls put Obama in the lead, which would also be misleading.

 

You would be wrong to a degree. The economy can be affected greatly by the government. Regulations and business environment matter almost as much as rates. Obama created a hostile environment for business thus many chose not to expand with funds available. Contrast that with Trump which has a higher degree of business investment going on even with a higher rate to borrow.

 

Dead car battery so I have time to jump back in. DOW was 7550 on Jan 20, 2009 and 19,804 on Jan 19, 2017 so a 2.62 times increase while 44 was POTUS. I took the low point from March 6 2009 (DOW at 6469) to also emphasize my statement that there has been 10 years of fairly consistent growth. Charts I linked to above show this as well. Yea, 44 started from a low point but that wasn't his doing. Yea, I get that it's easy to go up from such a low point but overall people can't really bitch about the DOW's performance over that time frame. I know my investments liked it.

 

Didn't miss your point hence my comment about Bush 1 getting screwed over the economy. I liked him as Prez and he didn't enact policies to hurt the economy. Just bad timing for him during an election cycle. Same could be true of Trump. If the economy goes South it will be a natural cycle of things and he shouldn't be blamed but he will be. Just like all Presidents prior to him when things went South. Well, to be fair, Carter was a great man but he sure sucked at being a President - especially when looking at economic performance.

 

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2019/08/15/walmart-earnings-crush-fears-of-imminent-recession/

If you dont like the source, dont read it.

 

Doesn't bother me to read the article. Good for them and their shareholders. We got on this whole kick from the post about the US bond yield curves inverting and how some feel it is a leading indicator. Just like the investment statements you get every month, past performance doesn't guarantee future earnings.