Trump is a Winning Machine

An inverted yield curve is only one of many indicators. What it means is that there is less profit in lending money so liquidity tends to dry up. IF there are other things wrong with the economy then a recession may be in the offing. The question is...what are the other things wrong with the economy? Consumer is pretty strong. Manufacturing is flat. Real estate is highly variable but flat overall. My opinion is this is an opportunity to put some "play" money into the system. Get a quick 2 or 3 % and go back to cash....OR, I could be wrong.

 

Engineered recession is about as ridiculous as the Russian collusion. We've had 10 years of overall growth. We are overdue for a correction. In Feb of 2009 less than 45 days after Obama took office the Dow bottomed out. The last day he was in office (Jan. 19, 2017) the market was 3x greater than the lowest point in Feb 2009. Trump comes in Jan. 20 2017 and the market responds very well in 2017. Since Jan 2018 until now it's just been bouncing all over the place. The large tax breaks just delayed the inevitable. If we have a recession I personally think it won't be bad. Companies are cash rich and banks are way more healthy than in 2007/2008 era. But, I thought we were due for a recession the last year Obama was POTUS and I was wrong then so I may be wrong again. To say Obama sucked for the economy is plain wrong. Numbers prove otherwise. I'm a numbers guy and I looked up the Dow numbers myself and I am 100% correct on what I previously typed. He also had 75 straight months of positive job growth. More than any President ever although the greatest number of jobs weren't created while he was President. That record goes to Clinton. Will Trump exceed Obama's record of positive job growth months? Time will tell. Will Trump exceed Clinton's record of number of jobs created? Time will tell.

Obama was also very good for the gun industry. They had record sales in many quarters due to the ridiculous fear he was coming for your guns. The private sector energy production also thrived under Obama. The US produced more oil and natural gas while he was POTUS than at any previous time ever. I read one article that stated the energy sector has been one area that has helped maintain a strong economy for several years now. Ironic that domestic oil and natural gas production did so well under Democratic President huh?

My other personal belief is that the only thing that can take Trump out in 2020 is a faltering economy much like 1992 took Bush 1 out. I voted for Bush 1 and thought he was doing a fine job and in 1992 it was simple economic cycles that he fell victim to.

 

President's actually have a minor impact on the economy. Blaming them or crediting them is a fools game. Even the Fed is a minor player anymore. It truly is a world economy and the US may be the biggest economy on that stage but it can't do all the work itself. Anti business laws generally get enacted in the first 2 years of a presidential term (big surprise!). After that things tend to get muffled. The impact of anti (or pro, for that matter) business laws takes quite a while to factor into the cycle. Obama care took 6 years. Corporate tax cuts 2 years. The world economy is back sliding at the present and this is the major drag which will likely impact the US no matter what we do. Foreign money is pouring into the US currently and that is what is propping us up, along with consumer spending. It's also what is driving down interest rates and hence the inverted curve. My guess is we have another year of "good times" kind of bouncing around where we are now until we get dragged under. After that it will take quite a while to recover....meanwhile all the bad actors in the world will have a field day.
This is the main reason (not directly the economy) we need a strong pro-American president. Things will difficult for us if we have a weak-knee in charge.

 

Don't disagree but people make a living at blaming the President on both sides of the aisle. Trumpski is already lining up the Feds as the fall guys if the economy starts to falter. If not the Feds, he will throw the blame to the Dems. Like I previously mentioned there is a natural cycle of things and we are due for a downturn no matter what any political person does.

 

Someone clearly doesn’t have a grasp on economic growth rate. OMB per usual.

Understanding Economic Growth Rate


The green line represents the GDP growth during the presidency of President Obama. The orange line reflects the average rate of GDP growth since 1953.

GDP growth was below-average during Obama's presidency.

 

Garth, you are like the annoying fly at a family picnic. GDP isn't the only relevant factor in an economy. Get a life already man.

 

And when has the GDP stat effected your personal bank or retirement accounts? The GDP numbers may have not been great under 44 but my personal IRA's and Roth IRA sure did like the growth. I made more money under the Clinton and Obama Presidencies than at any other times in my adult earning years.

 

GDP isn’t the only relevant factor?
Are you sure about this? I’m giving you a life line.

Oh, I’m the one who needs to get a life? Thats rich coming from you.

 

Imma just gonna leave these here for the OMB one trick pony.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/how-trump-has-set-economic-growth-on-fire.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/12/tru...th-pace-unlike-anything-seen-in-13-years.html
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckj...d-18-months-into-his-presidency/#2aa1a36d1283

 

Its cute that you think you have any credibility here Joe. You dont.

Welcome to the club. I've been here awhile. Pull up a chair, the coffee is warm.

 

I thought we were discussing economic growth of the country not one individuals financial strength. Completely different subjects, but keep moving the goal post to try and support your OMB agenda.

Oh and to answer your question my personal bank account is positively effected by a stronger economy.
Retirement accounts are a whole different animal all together that are driven more by investment choice and investment mechanisms. But in general there is a correlation.

 

Simple question. How did your personal investments perform from March 6, 2017 thru Jan 17, 2017? The Dow went from 6469 to 19,732 or a rise of 3.05 times. My investments rocked on despite the GDP numbers you are hanging your hat on. Those years treated my accounts very well.

 

It's also cute how you call sources you call "fake news" when they don't fit your personal agenda or beliefs and then use them as reliable information if they happen to publish something you like.

A source from Jan 2018? Really? Like I stated in another post, the market responded very well in 2017 to Trump and his tax cuts certainly helped big corporations most. Look at the macro data. The Dow is back to where it was in Jan. 2018. That's 1 year 8 months of volatility and essentially no market change.

But, by all means keep on with your tired old OMB and TDS barbs.

 

Only a fool makes any kind of conclusion based on such a short time period. Its irrelevant considering my investment goals and time frame unless I simply cashed out. The market changes and is volatile at times, it doesn’t equate into being anything more then it has ebbs and flows. Growth and contraction.

I’m not hanging my hat on any GDP numbers. They are what they are. I’m not making or attributing any additional statements to them. You are.

 

I don't give a rats ass if you think I or others have credibility in the Dungeon. Numbers I posted don't lie no matter what you tell yourself.

 

That is hilarious when you post very short sighted articles from CNBC and Forbes to try and justify your other posts. And I didn't bring up GDP. You did.

 

we know joe. you have told us you dont give a rats ass like 100 times. You should make it your sig. It would save you time to focus more on your aloofness.

 

Please show me where I ever called any of these sources fake news.
So because an article that shows a snap chat in time is from 2018 it’s not factual. It’s not actual? It didn’t happen?

You paint your own picture, Joe. Certainly not me. You create your own reality of how others perceive you and your OMB. Not me. I’m clearly not the only one who thinks this.

 

Here's your sign.