Trump is a Winning Machine

We are 1 year and 8 months past an article you posted. It may have been relevant for a short period of time back then but the market performance over the past 20 months is relevant to the discussion. You are ignoring it. You are trying to paint a picture while omitting large periods of time. Come back to reality and speak with data. Motofun352 and I were.

 

Good Lord. You made this statement: “ We've had 10 years of overall growth”. Clearly the discussion was centered around the economy. I pointed out that growth is somewhat meaningless and the truer picture is obtained by using economic growth rate. So please tell me. How does one measure the strength and growth of an economy with out using GDP? How does anyone have a meaningful conversation concerning the overall economy without talking about GDP? I’ll wait for your answer.

 

I’m not omitting anything. If you had any level of reading comprehension or simple memory, it’s simply just a snapshot in time as I stated prior. Oh I need to come back to reality.

Your OMB is in full swing.

 

Just look at the macro Dow numbers between 2009 to 2019. It is a very positive growth picture over those whole 10 years. Look at the job numbers, unemployment rates, etc. GDP is but one measure.

https://www.google.com/search?clien...s-wiz.......0i71j0i22i30j0i20i263.PsrczHZ8cNs

More on the GDP:
https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543

 

So what's driving the "inversion"'other than "Opinions"

 

Your delusion is in high gear this morning. You just love the OMB hand tag when I haven't even thrown the orange man under the bus once in this recent discussion. In fact, I stated in one post I agreed with Motofun's comments. Yet, you cannot refute data I have posted or economic cycles I have referred to. Just go after me because you enjoy doing so.

 

Very tough to say and I don't study it enough but I suspect large scale expansions and investments have slowed and so has lending. Like other measures it is sometimes thought as a precursor to a recession. I'm not so sure about that. My gut tells me we are overdue for a recession but then when I look at companies balance sheets there is no reason for one. Companies are cash rich and banks are still healthy. But, facts, data and logic don't always drive the market. My father was a stockbroker for over 30 years. He said only three things drive the market in the end - Fear, Hope, and Greed. Like Motofun532 said above and which I agree with, it will be a global recession, not one triggered here in the US.

 

So you don't study the issue, but you want to tell others, who may or may not study the issue, that they are wrong. Please use your sign.

 

Simply Stated what is driving this one is Pure BullShit
OMB
OMB Economy Bad
OMB Policy Bad.

 

Sure jobs went up. So did food stamp participation of an average 3 to 1 per new job. The highest mark came in 2012 when it was 75 to 1, lowest was 1.5 to 1. I guess food stamp participation is a sign of a good economy?

 

Said I didn't study it ENOUGH. Where did I tell someone they were wrong? Seems like the sign you posted is more relevant to yourself right now.......

 

I wouldn’t hang my hat on the markets performance or on employment numbers as a solid measure of the economy. Both don’t show the entire picture nor do they account for production or expenditures which are true economic numbers.

Keep discounting how GDP is only one measure, but its a pretty big measure. It’s undeniably the greatest indicator of an economies strength. This and GNP.

 

My delusions?

I think this is the third or possibly fourth time you’ve projected your own behavior on me.

 

You own it Joe. Remember, you don't care.

 

Did I discount GDP? No. I stated it is but one measure. I threw out other measures. They are just that, other measures. There is no one single data measure that can predict the future. If there was, we would all be rich if you paid attention. GDP sure isn't a leading indicator which some speculate the yield curve is which started this whole recent discussion. I like Warren Buffets advice for small investors. Find 5 or so companies you know well and follow/study them. Personally, I feel industries like large ticket items such as large power generation gas turbines like those produced here in Greenville along with the housing industry can be leading indicators. GE has had two layoffs at the Greenville plant and there are indicators that the housing market is starting to flatten. If so, My guess is we are 8 to 16 months away from a recession.

 

I think it’s more related to a technical trade curve (double shoulder) speculation and trade uncertainty with China. There are also some early indicators of slowing foreign economies. I also know that a huge national mortgage company in Des Moines has mortgage first time missed payments trending up. Also 60 day past due payments are increasing at one of the largest construction loan business in the country that is also located in Des Moines. So I think there are some indicators that support a current contraction. But for sure Trump isn’t getting any benefit of the doubt.

 

WERA owns the beeb and all contents within. Sorry to disappoint you.

 

It appears none of us know enough about this issue to offer accurate perspective.

On another note I have visited that gas turbine plant and it is awesome. We did a Kaizen exchange with them. Pretty cool.

 

Again, I’m the one that needs to pay attention? This is another one of you projecting on me. LOL

You are discounting GDP when you simply state that it’s just one number. It’s a pretty big fucking huge number. GDP isn’t about predicting the future. It’s an actual measurement of past performance. I’m only talking in terms of the countries economic growth rate. Private investments- stocks, bonds, Dow, etc are an entirely different discussion all together. You seem to be combining them.

 

That's where I started my work career. It's a huge place. Interesting fact - As they tried to increase the efficiency of the turbines their tolerances got tighter and tighter. It would take multiple shifts to machine some of the huge turbine parts. They would grow as the plant warmed up during the daytime and then be out of tolerance when the night shift came in to measure before starting more machining. An engineer finally caught on that the plant needed to be air conditioned so the machining tolerances could be maintained over multiple shifts and temperature variations.

In the really big turbines you can stand inside the shells, stretch your arms out and still not touch the shell surfaces.