Why do you think it will? International markets are still undervalued. Consumer confidence is up. The Caterpillar earnings was a great sign of the economy expanding. I don't see it any time soon.
CAT, in particular, has spent the better part of two days completely oversold - on a scale of 0-100, it has been around 90, with "normal" being between 70 and 30. On Friday, it closed at 94.32. Yesterday, it gapped up to 95.84 at opening and closed at 96.81, ahead of earnings - no big deal. Today, it jumped to 102.88 at opening (a 6% move) and has climbed all day to 104. Its way outside of a 2 standard deviation move, and its volatility has dropped to 0. At some point, between being oversold, way outside its standard deviation, and volatility being non-existent, it HAS to drop. I just need it to do it before my options expire on Friday.
Hopefully you didn't have any McDonalds either. It was lumped in the same article I read about Caterpillar. Seems their earnings were way better than expected too.
I stayed out of MCD. Tesla is the other one that has crushed me. A significant move out of nowhere a couple of weeks ago and hasn't come back down... AND earnings are next week. As I'm writing this MCD is starting to drop a little, and momentum seems to be falling in CAT. Someone is gonna sell. I hope.
I'm for sure not an expert but I've watched friends try to time the market. They are often right and do buy during a correction. The problem is that they missed out on all of the earnings before the correction. My gut tells me they made less money than I did buy just staying in.
You guys are waaay too smart for me with all this wall st smack. Im contributing an average of $3000 month into my 401. What my fidelity funds mgr does with it, i have no idea.
CAT was an earnings play. I wasn't so much timing the market as I was trying to exploit what's known as "volatility crush". The idea is that during earnings, people get worked up and buy and sell real quick in anticipation - so there's this giant build up before the numbers come out, then when earnings hit, its no longer an event and everyone smokes a cigarette, takes a nap, or makes a sandwich. Prices on options fall. The prices on options fell like they were supposed to. The problem was that I was outside the range. My trade was set up so that I'd make money regardless of which direction the price went, within a certain range. Well, they blew the shit out of that range because earnings were way higher than estimate. I complain, but I didn't actually take a loss yet. I can roll the options out a month or two and try again when the price is lower. Technically, with enough money (and I don't mean millions), it is feasible to never lock in a loss with options. But, you have to have a six figure trading account, and know how/when to make adjustments. The knowing how/when part is a lot like playing blackjack or riding a track - knowing exactly where and when to make which movement. Also, it ties up your capital, keeping you from putting it on other trades. So that kinda sucks.
Maybe. If you reduce equities ahead of a recession, you win big. The next recession will bring big losses, with valuations as high as they are. The good thing is, there are no signs of any short term recession.
Haha... CAT, y'all... 2.29% downmove means I got all my money back, plus made a little. TSLA with the 5.9% downmove helps too...
I finally had to get with the program. One can only be a contrarian so long and expect to make any money.
I was out months ago. I trade anywhere from a week to 60 days on most things, and I mostly trade options. If I own stock, its because I've been assigned, or because I want the dividend and I'm selling options against it. I own mostly ETFs in my retirement accounts.
VIIIX and VINIX are both Vanguard Institutional funds that have done well. In at $90, now it's at ~$245ish. I believe that you can still access those. Unlike POSKX, it's not a dividend paying fund. If you like the asset distribution of POSKX, why would you not go ahead and get it?
