DJIA closed at 19963.xx 1/20/2009: DJIA @ 7,949 1/6/2017: DJIA @ 19,963 Up over 12,000 points in 8 years....
Depends on how long it takes them to de-construct some of the financial regulation that was put in place post 2007/2008 collapse. Once that's done, add 6-9 months.
They've already found a workaround for most of those regs. They're doing the same sub-prime bundling crap they were back then. The only difference is that the lenders aren't giving a way mortgages to anyone/anything with a pulse so the scale is much much smaller.
Small and mid caps are where it'll be for the next few years. International is still undervalued, so it'll come booming in at some point. You heard it here.
I got a year end statement for '16 and outlook summary for this year from Fidelity the other day. Here's a piece of it: HIGHLIGHTS • Stocks in global developed markets recorded mixed results in the six months ended November 30, 2016, while emerging markets stocks posted solid gains. U.S. investment-grade debt and debt from international developed markets declined, while returns for emerging markets bonds were modestly positive. • The T. Rowe Price Retirement Funds generated positive absolute returns for the semiannual reporting period. Performance was generally in line with or modestly trailed the funds’ combined index portfolios. Results versus the funds’ Lipper peer group averages were uniformly positive. • Equity markets are near record highs due to investor optimism about the potential for pro-growth policies following the U.S. elections. Current equity valuations are modestly above historical averages, with declining profit margins and tepid earnings growth offering little support. • We expect modest returns from bonds as the current low-yield environment makes for a weak foundation, and rising U.S. interest rates could pose a headwind for most sectors. • We believe that broad diversification across asset classes, regions, and sectors, as well as our ability to actively change allocations to enhance the portfolio’s risk/reward profile, should benefit the Retirement Funds across a range of market and economic environments. OUTLOOK: U.S. economic growth is likely to improve in the coming year. Donald Trump’s election victory and the continued Republican control of Congress have increased expectations for pro-growth policies. Inflation is trending higher, supported by higher energy prices, a stronger labor market, and rising wages. The Fed raised interest rates in December after the end of our reporting period, with expectations for a modest pace for further tightening into next year. Although corporate leverage has increased, balance sheets outside of energy-related sectors appear healthy and provide flexibility in the use of capital to increase capital spending, engage in mergers and acquisitions, and return capital to shareholders. Companies are reporting low single-digit profit increases in the third quarter of 2016, supported by positive earnings surprises across most sectors that ended the worst streak in quarterly earnings declinces since the global financial crisis. EUROPEAN: Expectations for European economic growth have been revised lower as consumer and corporate spending react to the uncertainties of Brexit and the EU works to stabilize its membership. The ECB is holding policy support at current levels, while acknowledging that risks remain skewed to the downside. The region’s economic recovery remains fragile and still faces a number of near-term risks in addition to Brexit, Proof #4 15 including heightened political uncertainty surrounding upcoming elections in France and Germany. Significant long-term structural issues such as high debt, low inflation, and elevated unemployment continue to plague growth in many European countries. JAPAN: Japan’s economy expanded modestly in the third quarter of 2016, marking its third consecutive quarter of growth. However, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to reform the economy and stimulate growth remain challenged by weak consumption, tepid wage growth, and low inflation. The yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar for much of the period and weighed on exports and corporate profitability, although a weakening trend over the period’s closing months provided a boost to exports. While investors have been skeptical of Mr. Abe’s and the BoJ’s progress on stimulating economic growth and inflation, Japanese corporations are showing positive movement toward improving corporate governance and enhancing shareholder value. Overall economic growth in emerging markets is showing signs of improvement. However, countryspecific conditions vary in terms of economic growth, monetary and fiscal policy flexibility, dependence on commodity exports, and progress toward structural reforms. A proliferation of protectionist policies could weigh on global trade, while higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar could contribute to capital outflows. After rebounding from lows reached at the start of the year, many emerging markets currencies fell sharply following the U.S. elections. China’s economy continues to expand at a steady pace, and policymakers are using a number of fiscal and monetary policy tools to achieve their growth targets—currently between 6.5% and 7.0%— as they engineer an orderly transition to a consumer-based growth model. Key risks to global markets include the impact from spreading populist and protectionist policies on political stability and global trade, the sustainability of energy prices, and global monetary policies. We Japan’s economy expanded modestly in the third quarter of 2016, marking its third consecutive quarter of growth. Proof #4 16 believe that the broad diversification of our portfolios across asset classes, regions, and countries, as well as our ability to make tactical changes in the funds’ allocations should help us generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in an uncertain market environment.
This thread both frightens me and makes me laugh. The first time I had an interview printed in a major financial rag, was in June 2008, Barron's. The front cover had "BUY GM" in huge font. About a year later, they filed for bankruptcy. Turns out, my suggestion to buy Freeport McMaran stock wasn't the worst advice in that particular issue! Point is, all the pundits... all the advisors... all he investment bankers have one thing in common: they don't know dick. There are precisely two eternal truths in the market. 1) there is no such thing as a free lunch. 2) don't fight the Fed. The Fed has kept rates at or near zero for an unprecedented length of time. Not surprisingly, the markets have soared to unprecedented highs. To oversimplify, banks can basically borrow money for free and invest it in the market. That's what's been going on for several years now. The Fed is raising rates. They have said that they will continue to do so. The ""free lunch"" is over. I used quotes because the bill is soon to be presented to everyone invested in US markets. Once one bank pulls out (I'd be watching GS really closely!) every bank will be following suit. I'd expect trading curbs to be implemented at least twice in the next 2 years. It's gonna be brutal. Or, I'm full of shit and there really is such a thing as a free lunch.
Well said (not the part where you're full of shit) I heard a financial "expert" this morning saying how European stocks were undervalued and are a buy All I could think is that his company is bailing on that trade I'd be surprised if the EU has 2 more years
Not sure, the local finance dudes always talk about the 7/10 rule and the doubling affect. Im assuming youre right.
