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Dow Jones

Discussion in 'General' started by 50Joe, Sep 22, 2015.

  1. 50Joe

    50Joe Registered User

    Who here thinks the market is started for a long, slow decline? It hit 18,000 in August 2014 and bounced around that number for a whole year until it dropped to 15,500 in August 2015 and then rebounded to about 16,500. At 16,700 I pulled all my money out and set it in an account that cannot gain or lose any value and still not pay taxes since I have not drawn it out to myself officially. In reality the market has been strong for a number of years and the Feds can't keep interest rates near zero forever. Corporate profits are robust and the data still says stay the course but the stock market is heavily fueled on fear, hope, and greed which often do more to drive the numbers than companies balance sheets. I knew I should have pulled at 18,000 and even called my advisor at that level but the market dropped to the 16's faster than we reacted. I knew it was headed for a drop in 2008 and my gut said to pull it but I let it ride since I was younger and still working. If I went with my gut then I would have 2.5 times the balance in my account. Live and learn.
     
  2. auminer

    auminer Renaissance Redneck

    I'm out.

    I think you did the right thing getting out now.

    There's an old mantra: "Don't fight the Fed." Sooner rather than later, the Fed is going to have to put some points on the overnight. That's just simple fact.

    I'm seriously looking at investing in vintage wines & whiskys & such, but I have no friggin clue about that kinda thing. Seems there's always some dipshit or another with money burning a hole in his pocket that wants to buy some out-f@ckin-rageously expensive likker.

    Me, I can't taste the difference between Mad Dog & Dom, so I won't be drinking up my profits, for sure! :D
     
  3. worthless

    worthless Well-Known Member

    I'm in it for the long term and will continue to buy while it's low/dropping. I won't be ready for retirement for another 10-12 years, so, unless the market continues to decline over that time period, I'll be OK. My life has been much less stressful since I quit looking at my portfolio balance every day.
    The majority of my money isn't tied up in individual equities. I have neither the time nor the smarts to try to mess around with that.
     
  4. flyboy

    flyboy Well-Known Member

    I'm not sure your age or financial situation.... The correct move is different for each individual and you probably won't know if you did right until your old and retired anyway. I'm not quite 40 and will stay in the market. I'll still collect dividends and have plenty of time to recover. Personally I don't believe in market timing... I feel your more likely to get things wrong vs nailing tops and bottoms. I tend to like John Boggle's(Vanguard founder) advice towards investing.
     
  5. wsmc42

    wsmc42 Well-Known Member

    I pulled my money out a while ago. Maybe I'm doom & gloom, but my fear is the recent market is only a circumstance or two away from a big correction, not just a slow decline.
     
  6. ton

    ton Arf!

    my opinion is that the market for high end wine and liquor has been artificially inflated to the point of no return. mostly by recently-wealthy Chinese interests. i haven't carefully kept track in the last couple of years, but i'd be awful careful with that path. I can't imagine much return for Bordeaux/Burgundy anytime soon. and you can't do down that road without either paying someone to store it properly or paying a fortune for you own properly constructed cellar.
     
  7. ryoung57

    ryoung57 Off his meds

    On the surface I think the same way, but short of an absolute world changing incident, the corrections only hurt the people that bail. The market always comes back and those that stick it out profit.
     
  8. 50Joe

    50Joe Registered User

    I generally agree with not trying to time the market. But, since I am currently not working I must protect what I have. Do I believe it will go back above 18,000? Yes, but it may be 5 or 10 years from now.
     
  9. auminer

    auminer Renaissance Redneck

    Yeah, I'd research the hell out of it before I jumped. As I said, I don't know Bordeaux from Boones.

    I did well enough in the 90s & had a fortunate f@ckup that got me out just in time for the dotbomb crash, then did very damn well in the 00s. Unless I get stupid, I'ma be OK for life. Not set for life, but OK.

    But I've got a penchant for getting stupid. :D
     
  10. gapman789

    gapman789 Well-Known Member

    From what i read/listen to, the 'experts' say to leave your money in and continue to contribute. It's the long term to be focused on, but age does play a part in it as you get closer to retirement. Look at all the people that took their cash ouut and missed out on an ever-climbing market that past 8yrs. They lost big by not staying in.

    This is just a 10% correction that's going on with the market that is totally normal. (experts say)

    Stocks are cheap now...continue to add to your 401k and you'll have bigger gains.

    Im dropping $500-700 wk in my 401k, employer plan. Automatically goes in, pre-tax.

    Feds do need to raise interest rates. They haven't been raised in 8 yrs or some shit. Raising them .25% is nothing.

    Of course wall street doesn't want to see interest rates go up, but at the same time, when the feds don't raise interest rates, it can be perceived that the economy isn't strong enouugh to handle a measley quarter of a point increase, so that has wall street on edge too. Feds just need to raise the rate and be done with it, and everything will settle back down. (experts talking here)
     
  11. Ducti89

    Ducti89 Ticketing Melka’s dirtbike.....

    I got 19 years of employment to go. Surely we can hit bottom and come back up in 19 years...right?
     
  12. flyboy

    flyboy Well-Known Member

    In that case you might consider consulting a professional who can help you build a bond ladder with actual bonds(not a bond fund) that will provide a steady return while continuing to invest a smaller amount in the stock market.
     
  13. GRH

    GRH Well-Known Member

    I think the market topped for a while and is not going back up for the remainder of the year and possibly next year. That may change if the fed turns on the QE spigot again. The fed basically acknowledged that the economy is not firing on all cylinders when they decided to not raise the federal funds rate .25% after being zero bound for nearly 6 years. If .25% increase is enough to take down the market then things are not the rosy picture that CNBC says it is. China's economy is slowing down and emerging markets are being hit. Oil countries are being hit with the $45 crude.
    Probably wise to take some money off the table temporarily to see how things play out
     
  14. beac83

    beac83 "My safeword is bananna"

    I think the market will recover towards the end of this year. This seems like an overdue correction.

    Volatility today is driven as much by programmed trading than any actual real-world business factors. If the market starts down, the programmed trades amplify the effect. Then if things don't bounce right back, the programs move toward a downward bias, making the instability last longer than it would without the massive amount of programmed trades.

    Election years when we change Presidents have a negative affect on the market, regardless of which party takes the office. The uncertainty of a new leader spooks Wall Street. So I expect the market to dip around the time of the 2016 elections, or shortly thereafter.
     
  15. kangasj

    kangasj Banned

    I'm out. I just don't trust the markets lately. Economy is weak and too many games going on....
     
  16. Yzasserina

    Yzasserina sound it out

    :stupid: Bingo!
     
  17. GRH

    GRH Well-Known Member

  18. Orvis

    Orvis Well-Known Member

    If people will hang on to their hats, and hang onto their stocks for the long run, they'll get more gains on their money than anywhere else. The market has outperformed everything else for decades and most likely will continue to do so. Above all, do not panic, give up, and take your money and run. We are in a simple correction presently and it will go back up. I've always stuck to the "farting dog" plan. That's one that states that if a small white dog trots into Wall Street and farts, the market will respond. It means nothing.

    Ohmmmm, ohmmmm, ohmmmm. Calm does it.
     
  19. kangasj

    kangasj Banned

    I dunno man. The fed has run out of bullets trying to prop up the markets with QE. Interest rates can't go any lower. Interesting times.....
     
  20. GRH

    GRH Well-Known Member

    Sweden's central bank is negative .35%
    The fed overplayed it's hand, it was likely trying to make up for poor domestic monetary policy but can do no more.
     

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