*accept. I know how you f'ers are about this crap haha. And Im pretty sure northern cali still has to follow the laws like southern cali, except now you don't get the nice weather and beaches like the southern part does.
I saw this mentioned on the news. Apparently there fire blasted through the site. Holy crap! Where can I learn more about this? This is almost as good as union carbide Bhopal. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Susana_Field_Laboratory
Please enlighten us "Wildfires have a rapid forward rate of spread (FROS) when burning through dense, uninterrupted fuels.[54] They can move as fast as 10.8 kilometres per hour (6.7 mph) in forests and 22 kilometres per hour (14 mph) in grasslands."
I was wondering about this knowing how much burned. What a bummer. At least he has a positive outlook on it.
I hate to tell you, but FLASH is a long ways from a peer research, and in this case is unreliable. Those values are as far as i know (and I've been studying fire behavior for 30 years) uncorroberated, and likely include long range spotting integrated into the spread calc. Since firebrands do not come with a return address, its always difficult to note both the location and timing of an initiating brand. Extreme rates of spread are usually <3 mph when integrated over reasonable distances where all mechanisms of spread are included. The early estimate for ROS from quasi-equilibrium to the western edge of Paradise was roughly 2 mph. 2 mph fires are smokin' fast, but they aren't "a few miles in a few minutes" even allowing for an extremely generous ratio of one "few" to another "few". We estimated the ROS for the fire Tubbs (Oct 2017 around Santa Rosa) at roughly 3 mph. A few fires have reported roughly 5 mph spread, integrated over 1-4 hour (or longer) durations. Mini-downbursts/gusts can cause flame attachment along a single slope surface and give much higher rates reflecting the wind anomaly, but these are usually in the 10o m spatial scale realm. Fires burn fast, and chances are you are not going to outrun one on its front either under gradient or downdraft/collapsed plume wind influences.
What is your definition of a few minutes? By your data - "worst case" 14 mph/60 minutes = .233 miles per minute... so 1 mile every 4 minutes roughly
Perhaps I was generous with the word 'few'. However the speed they spread can be scary fast, especially once the human factor is thrown in. A couple minutes to fully comprehend what is happening, some more minutes to actually realize and start bugging out, and the time to clear the area. I will admit though, the knowledge you threw out there is impressive, I'm just a professional hustler (salesman) I'll gladly sell you on the fact that fire will move at the speed of light and get someone to spend money on it
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-camp-fire-science-20181110-story.html "The Camp fire started at 6:30 a.m. Thursday in a granite canyon with steep slopes. By 10 a.m., it had ballooned to 5,000 acres, pushed by 50-mph gusts from the northeast. “This got up and going really, really rapidly,” said Dave Sapsis, a wildland fire scientist with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. “It had almost a direct-arrow line” to Paradise, a town of 27,000 sitting atop a ridge in the Sierra Nevada foothills."
Looking at his house pics, I could have taken my bobcat and cleared that fuel from around it in an hour or so.
I disagree. If he truly means what he said, it sounds like he’s one of the very few who have their priorities in order.