What I find interesting right now is that everyone seems to be assuming that Zarco will still be in GP next year. It's as if no one remembers why he chose Honda over Ducati and what that deal was (2 MGP + 1 WSBK). They could just swap him with Toprak next year if they sign him.
Think they'd ship him off to WSBK? Zarco seems to be the best of the Honder riders this year. But hey, it's Honda and Honda does some weird ass shit so who knows.
That's what they signed him for. Does anyone not believe that they are working on Acosta and Raz at the moment?
You're waaaaay more up on this stuff than me so it's interesting and news to me. He's year two with Honda in Motogp? He did get them a Suzuka 8hr win last year and that used to be money in bank for a rider with Honda. Does a french passport mean anything in Motogp?
Yes. Somewhat, but they only need one. I don't think they're going to fight hard over losing the older one.
I'll play Devil's advocate - they could do this but why would they? Toprak likely wouldn't accomplish much in GP next year. Leave him in WSBK, maybe he has another 2024 type season, maybe not. But in the meantime he gets to ride and help develop the '27 Honda GP bike all they want in between the thin WSBK schedule and he gets to go into GP in '27 with a year ahead of the grid in testing and fresh off the Pirellis that everyone else not out of Moto2 in the past 2 years has to adjust to. Doesn't seem to be much to gain by going to GP with them next year and everything to gain by planning for 27.
There's no need for devil's advocate. I haven't said anything about what they should do. Just what the contract says, according to Zarco. They're only bound by it if one party doesn't want to change it. I know for a fact That Zirco would rather stay, and 100% agree that it would be advantageous for Honda too. So it's likely to happen. But it's not automatic.
I think Toprak to Honda for WSBK in '26 and GP in '27 makes sense. Like others have said, perhaps he pulls a championship out of the hat next year for Honda in WSBK and then moves onto GP. I don't think pulling Toprak ahead into '26 makes sense since that would eliminate him from being able to test ad infinitum. In courting Acosta for next year, Honda will have a young up & coming star and a seasoned, (hopefully) competitive development captain/rider aside Acosta. The only possible rub their is both of them thinking they're #1.
There's endless speculation and potential moves over the next two years. Rules changes are a big deal for '27, almost no riders have contracts past '26, and lets not forget there will inevitably be older / underperforming riders pushed out and new younger riders from Moto2 brought in. As it stands so far this year I'd say Manu Gonzalez, Dani Holgado, maybe Barry Baltus, and even Aron Canet could be in the running for a top class seat in '27. There's a few sweethearts of the paddock too just because they're in the right circles like Tony Arbolino and Alonso Lopez. I could see a few riders getting pushed out for '27 like Raul Fernandez, Miguel Olivera, and Jack Miller. I'm not saying they "should", but it could happen. Age for some; underperforming for others. I think Chantra will probably have his seat for a while regardless of performance and I do hope he improves as well.
Wild card is Ogura if he keeps doing well. Only thing Honda wants more than to be world champ is to be world champ with a Japanese rider.
Ogura on a Honda could be a go and his contract with Trackhouse expires at the end of '26. However, Toprak has said he will only go to a full factory team in GP. Which is all well and good, but maybe when push comes to shove, he'll see the light and love the LCR seat? If Toprak proves to be unyielding, then Ogura goes to LCR in '27 and then to the factory team in '28 alongside Acosta while Toprak goes off into the sunset to count his millions? Which begs the question where are Zarco, Marini and Mir in all this? Zarco's racing endurance for Honda somewhere? Marini is riding a VR46 Yamaka in '27? Mir is ... ?
500cc or MotoGP...no Japanese rider has ever dominated. I think Honder could care less who the rider is as long as their bike is the winner. 25 championships says it all. Win on Sunday sell on Monday with a huge spoonful of honor (bragging rights) to go along with another championship.
I can't imagine Honda putting Toprak over Ogura when Ogura is (assuming the trend continues) proven in GP AND Japanese. I think if Toprak went to Honda it'd either be because Honda couldn't secure both Acosta and Ogura <or> he goes to LCR with the promise of a current spec factory bike, techs, all the updates, etc. I wouldn't doubt Zarco might retire in '27. He's the oldest rider on the grid now and while he is competitive, at some point I think riders also want to experience life without a demanding race / train schedule. I think Mir might struggle to find a spot 2027 unless he improves on the Honda. I'm not sure if it's just correlation, but it would seem like Marini's arrival and the praise in the media behind his approach to developing a bike makes him more valuable, even if he's not on the podium. I don't think VR46 is going Yamaha anytime soon since Pramac has a contract through 2030 with factory bikes, so they'd be leftovers. Maybe in 2028+ depending on how the 2027 bikes perform? To be fair, Rins seems to be in a bit of trouble too. I know he's had a handful of injuries, but the results aren't on the board. Maybe Rins would replace Oliveira on Pramac and someone new goes to the factory seat?
Adding in we're speculating really on 2027 when we haven't seen the results of 2025 completely / or any of 2026. We could have new riders enter from Moto2 or elsewhere in '26 that completely change things. We could see newer riders Ogura and Aldeguer improve even more and they could be tapped for factory seats wherever, etc.
Gonzalez, yes. Holgado on the right track. Barry Baltus, meh. Canet is taking too long to win and probably too old. Lopez is too reckless. Garcia and Alonso may find themselves with a seat if they play their cards right. They did enough to garner some attention in moto3 and there seems to be recognition in the paddock that good moto2 results aren't a requirement for good GP performance as long as you proved yourself in moto3. 3 of the last 4 GP champions had abysmal moto2 runs. Dixon's passport probably could have secured a ride if he could keep himself off the ground but I'm thinking he's also too old by now.
I don't think anyone is coming out of Moto2 this year. There is no one so compelling that the teams can't wait for 2027 and the easier transition. I might have felt differently if it looked like Alonso could get ready this year, but that's highly doubtful. Holgado owns him at the moment and he ain't moving up either.
I'm not necessarily saying any of those riders "should" move up. Just some options of "could". Baltus isn't blowing up the scene, but he's still only 20 y/o, has at least a slightly different passport from Belgium, and consistently brings it to the checkered flag. There's quite a lot of riders contracted through the end of 2026 due to the upcoming rules changes, so you're probably right. Crazy things can and sometimes do happen though.
Don’t forget something that is a huge factor- Pirelli tires. Toprak is used to them. He will have that advantage in 27.
I am not feeling that advantage vibe...the tires are round, black and super sticky. I don't think the compounds Pirelli will develop will be outside the norms that Michelin does. Each bikes engine power characteristics may play a part on longevity for Sunday's race but the teams will test before the season so they should have a handle on that. I could be wrong but I think they are gonna go fast on either tire.
