Weather conspiracy

So I joke that the weather channel is predicting rain every weekend to depress economic activity and hurt Trump with my brother (he owns a bike shop and is affected).

However once again....
Wednesday prediction: Friday40% Sat/Sun60%
Current 20/40/20

So once again the prediction of a horrible weekend gets corrected as it arrives

 

Sometimes it rains when it wasn't supposed to. Is that trying to help Trump? Does it really depress "economic activity" or does the weather channel have it out for bike shops? Is the weather channel a Hollywood shill trying to create a rebound in cinema attendance?

Too many unanswered questions for it to not be a conspiracy...

 

Weather men are almost as accurate as a politician when they open their mouths.

 

It's either going to rain or it's not going to rain, therefore it should always be 50/50.

 

When I was a kid I REALLY wanted to be a meteorologist. I ended up (briefly) becoming a hedge fund sub-manager.

Funny how both are wrong damn near 100% of the time yet still make a shitload.

Now I drive around and play with dogs all day. I don't make near as much, but I get by, and I'm eleventy million percent happier!

 

Funny how you are wrong about weather forecasts.

 

No

They're close, and getting closer, but still wrong. If they predict a high of 80, and the mercury hits 81, then they were wrong. They predict 0.2 inches of rain, and my side of the street gets 0.21 = they were wrong.

Semantics is a bitch.

 

You might need to read up on measuring prediction error. Or not, because it clearly seems over your head.

 

So you are saying because they can calculate how much wrong their prediction will be, this makes it all correct?

 

No.

 

Meteology is easy, what it's like today is what it's gonna be like tomorrow. You are only wrong when it changes and this formula will get you right 80% of the time.

 

Humorously, when I went to the page to get the definition of "error" this was the "type in any word" suggestion.

 

Is a forecast for 80 And a high of 81 wrong? What if the forecast was for 27C for the same day? Accuracy and precision are not the same thing. Continuous variables have different test metrics than binary (see PoP). NWS forecasts are quite reliable but yeah some dumbass that doesn’t take the time to research how meteorologists both do thier business and evaluate thier work can use semantics to declare 100% wrong. It’s no wonder STM isn’t doing too well here because some ignorant person sees the term fuzzy logic and the first thing that pops into thier head is a meme to share with other ignorants.

 

Damn. You really like to name call.

Why so insecure?

80≠81

Semantics or not, the two values are not the same. Therefore it's an error. Which is defined as "wrong".

PS... 27°C rounds to 81°F, so it's wrong, too.

 

We still use the three day rule wrt to weather for a reason but if they predict 81 and it only reaches 80, I am good with it.

 

You want to keep going? Check your definitions. Go down to the appropriate entry. Consider that all estimates have error terms, especially those describing stochastic processes. Now consider the term “significance”.
Or continue to think that an 80 forecast for a realized high of 81 is wrong, bad, innacuarate, worthless. You can thereby use semantics to make yourself feel better while misunderstanding how science works.

 

This is like a BBT episode, lol.