Covid19 PSA

Now he's making horse noises?

 

Just as quick to cover their mouth with their hand for a sneeze or a cough; now the airline industry has that same hand out for a bailout....

Here we go....

 

I'm guessing its on the same level as a curfew. When Baltimore was under curfew a few years ago, they absolutely did not fuck around. Same things applied.. you

I'm heading up to york this morning to grab materials from one of my suppliers.. They're all saying as long as they are critical supply chain business they won't be closing up. But I'm not believing that for the long term. Didnt want to wait until next week for a possible delivery that might get cancelled. I don't know if I'll be able to deliver or install anything, but at least I'll be able to work.

 

So like, I hit the grocery store this morning. Wasn't bad. Busier than normal but no one was sressing. In fact most people, including myself, were being polite and just rolling with it. They had tp and paper towels. Canned goods were kinda low. Frozen pizzas were about wiped out. Lol. Wasn't that big of a deal. Normal traffic flow. Life as usual.

 

Not saying you`re wrong.....

But if it`s that harmful, why are the top dr.`s not telling people that to warn them of how serious it is? That would seem to be criminal.

Haven`t heard a word of that till now..

 

If they're just taking active cases vs deaths that's not really an accurate way to do things. With increased testing and the disease spreading, there's been a lot of new cases over the last couple days. That will push up the denominator, but people dying from it will take time.

 

Just got a call from that distributer. They're closing up asap. They are wholesale lumber.

 

I'm not being sarcastic here, but is there anything to back that up or still just conjecture?

 

In the end, ill wager the mortality rate stays right where it is or will be actually lower than expected.

 

it’s absolutely amazing how much of something you can find when you go looking for it.

 

and in the interim we’ve driven our economy off a cliff

 

Yep. I am not a fan. Hold on...

 

From the monitoring sites such as Johns Hopkins we see from the data that the rate of confirmed infections growing exponentially. While this is partialy due to increased testing, it is also due to people spreading the virus because we did not stop being too close to one another in our daily lives. The R0 (number of people an infected person infects) in the US appears to be about 9 as of early this week. It needs to be <1 to kill this off, so the pandemic is still growing. The rate of infection in the US is on a sharper curve up than it was in Italy 12 days ago (Italy's R0 was 6 then). Deaths have doubled in 3 days. With an r0 of 9, infections are doubling every few days. We haven't hit the point where we highside ourselves into the weeds yet, but likely will in the next 10 days. At that point, hospitals will be overwhelmed and a few days later, we will be where Italy is now.

I have seen some data on the two major strains of this virus, and I'm not smart enough to interpret it. From what I can understand, it seems that Italy's strain is far more infectious and deadly than the strain that was active in China. I'm unable to tell from what I've seen which of the two major strains we have most active here in the US, but both are present.

Here in the US and Europe we are seeing more younger folks with serious illness than they had in China. Something like 40% of the folks on ventilators (combined US and Europe) now are under 60. The data show clearly, that no matter your age if you go on a ventilator, you have a 50% chance of survival. Half die. This is true in Europe and in the US. The difference between the US and Europe is you die faster in Europe 8-9 days verses 12 days in the US.

I've been tracking resolved cases over the last week. These are the numbers of cases that have ended, either because the person recovered or died. I've been calculating the death rate for resolved cases (not infections). This is calculated by looking at the Johns Hopkins dashboard, and adding the death number to the recovered cases number, then dividing that by the death number. That global rate has crept up from 7% early last week, to over 10% this morning. To be sure, this 10% rate is only for confirmed cases that have resolved, and does not include cases where the person did not get tested or need medical intervention. Still, its a sobering number.

It also appears from looking at the confirmed cases and recovered cases / deaths numbers that the average length of illness (confirmed test to resolution) is in the range of 20-25 days. Coupled with an incubation period of 14 days, that indicates an infected person may be able to infect others for up to 38 days or so, whether they have symptoms or not.

Johns Hopkins Dashboard:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

Whatever happened in China IS NOT what was told so I place zero value on their data. Shoot they are now pushing TCM as something that was cure as they intend to market that nonsense to the rest of the world.

 

Are you looking for one for yourself? I mean look at how my post affects your response. Just like the little bitch you seemingly are acting like.

 

Here is a graphic of the three major clades (groupings?) of the virus mutations. The red variants seem to be the worse ones.

 

Turner Classic Movies? Again, the cure is worse than the disease.

 

Don’t disagree, I think bigger issue people keep continuing to miss is the timeframe in which this all happens. My concerns always been a social-economic meltdown and people’s lack of common sense to deal with tough situations. I may be wrong in my thinking but it’s the way I think. Plus there is the fear factor which people cannot wrap their head around facts and stay calm, make a few sacrifices voluntarily vs being forced to later. There are a lot of people straight up ignoring all recommendations and common sense? Ya that’s not common for a lot of folks. We are making the best of the time and actually halving some fun around the house, helps having land (and access to land) to be able to play ball, ride dirt bikes, etc. but kids are a bit stir crazy and patience is running a tad thin but making the best of it. I, waiting On data for domestic violence incidents as my unofficial from the police scanner seems to be at least 200% and it’s not even welfare check time. I also predict a shortage of illegal drugs coming from Mexico short term as a lot of their mules (people and shipping cargo containers, semi’s etc) aren’t allowed or considered crucial to cross into the US. This will create a whole new level of meth head crazy.

 

I don’t believe a piece of data out of China, I’ve spent enough time there to know how they misreport even simple things let alone something like this. No way no how is their data accurate - and that’s a totally inaccurate statement based purely on my speculation