Covid19 PSA

My understanding is it falls under same issues regarding adverse impacts to public good (i.e. non peaceful) for other assembly via reserved rights to states of police powers, like seen in civil protests that foreshadow violence. Its been invoked numerous times in cases of epidemic disease outbreaks and generally held up in court.

Leaving aside the difficult question of evaluating the current situation against one that can only be envisioned; the really, really weird thing here missing from the few voices here arguing against non-pharmaceutical intervention: where is all the mass bedlam? The rape and pillage, the absolute violation of something...anything, you need to do because you view it as your "right"? The state has asked you to isolate. Its a pretty goddamn far distance from martial law when I can go get some avocados at the grocer because I'm pining for guacamole.

<off to work. declared essential, possibly for the first time ever )

 

Good point.

 

My answer is "chill the fuck out, it'll be ok". I criticize people like him because made up big numbers will only fuel the panic fire.

 

I love you, Chris, but you're wrong here. We've seen all of this before, the last time was in 2009.

Yes, you're seeing steep increases right now in a few places, something that happens every flu season with some worse than others.
The more people that are tested, the more the mortality rate will drop until it is very comparable to the seasonal flu. When they finally
start testing the general population for people with antibodies, they will find immense numbers of people who already had Covid-19
before it was on most people's radar. At worst, deaths will be on par with a heavy flu season. 99% of the people who die will be old or
have comorbidities. Most healthy people who catch it will have a few bad weeks and recover fully. There will be some temporary heavy
usage of some hospital systems but they should be able to shift resources to handle it if they are at all competent. There's a good chance
that there will be a number of people harmed by bad vaccines just going on past failures.

Do some research, look at the historical records and ignore the useless data that's crowding out the few numbers that are useful.
Minus the massive overreaction of quarantine, we've seen all this before several times in the fairly-recent past.

 

Yep and true to form they are now talking about extending and expanding the lock downs etc.

 

I don't know you from Adam. I do know that this guy has a proven track record of assimilating vast amounts of information on very complex systems and accurately predicting outcomes.

I hope to fuck that he is wrong. Believe me. I don't want to see 6 (7?) digit body counts in the US. Let alone what it would do to second and third world people.

 

You win Wordsmith of the day

 

How exactly are these stay at home mandates working? I've been holed up with family in FL and will eventually need to drive back home.

 

Well the Florida cases stem from New Yorkers who fled that shithole so they still count as NY numbers.

As for the curfews and stay at home y'all need to realize FL in part or as a whole does this after every major hurricane. It's not nearly as terrifying as people are playing it out to be. Calm down.

 

There's already good data coming in from other countries to compare against.....the countries with the more stringent lockdowns both at their borders and through social distancing have kept the virus at bay......the others not so much.

 

Fine? Tempers frayed? Over home schooling? Eating too much? Not sure what you're asking, you're going to need to be more specific.

 

why?

 

There is no way to know any of that for sure. You post has a lot of “probably” and “should” in it, and is mostly wishful thinking.

Sure, we’ve had flu season forever, and there has been Ebola and SARS and a couple others (in relatively recent years), but nothing just like this. Nothing that infected over 500,000 people in just a few months, and is spreading at a rate of ~50,000 a day as best we can tell (and will get worse as more infected = more carriers = even more infected.

That’s not hypothetical, that’s what actually happening. Auminer laid out the numbers (from a guy that did the math) in his good post earlier.

The question in my post, was hypothetical...and it was “if we are seeing these kinds of numbers now, with the restrictions in place, what would we have seen if everyone (including the media) simply ignored it, and carried on as normal?

That isn’t a “yes or no” question.

 

Does DoorDash and Grubhub also delivery via Uber? Or are they something different also?

 

My sense of time passing has been distorted from working from home the last 2 weeks combined with “if you want to see the US in two weeks, look at Italy”. Italy is on the news every night and getting worse, but I can’t remember what Italy was like two weeks ago to compare it to the US today. I’m just gonna have a drink...it’s probably 5 o’clock in Italy.

 

The SBA site has been down since yesterday. Started an app, then got locked out.

 

Sorry, I wasn't very clear. I was asking legally, as in, am I allowed to drive home if FL makes a stay at home mandate. I heard something about some big fines for some states for not staying at home. I'm not sure how they actually enforce that, if people are allowed to leave to do essentials.