From a recent Richard Reeves column: "Once you get to Baghdad, it's not clear what you do with it. It's not clear what kind of government you put in place of the one that's currently there now. Is it going to be a Shia regime, a Sunni regime, a Kurdish regime? Or one that tilts toward the Baathists, or one that tilts toward Islamic fundamentalists? How much credibility is that going to have if it's set up by the American military there? How long does the United States military have to stay there to protect the people that sign on for that government, and what happens once we leave?" That secretary of defense was a former congressman from Wyoming named Dick Cheney (news - web sites). What will happen once we leave this time? The answer is probably that the same things will happen whether we leave now or in 18 years. Was he right then, or now? Discuss at your leisure.
Seems to be mostly questions illustrating the complexity of the problem, not predictions of out-come. That said, the current task involves not installing leaders of our choosing, but of facillitating free election of leaders of their own choice. Success in any endeavor is never guaranteed, doesn't mean you can't try. Keep in mind that Cheney was speaking in regard to the policy followed by Bush I (and agreed with by the rest of the world) which left Saddam still in power to murder his own people and threaten his neighbors as well as financially support terrorism and loot the oil-for-food program in order to bribe members of the Security Council. That policy appears to have been a great failure.
