War With Iran?

Is anyone else worried about the growing chorus of imbeciles calling for a US preemptive strike against Iran? After the expensive and draining war in Iraq, the botching of the previously semi-successful war in Afghanistan...we're supposed to once again use American Blood and Treasure (both either tired or in short supply) and get involved in yet another Middle East quagmire? For what...to do the bidding of our "staunch ally" Israel?

Are these people serious?!?

Iran's quote "desire" to "wipe Israel off the map" is just that...a non-actionable desire emitted by the attention loving (yet mostly powerless) President Ahmadinejad. This empty babble is no more a potential reality than walking to the moon, yet it still seems to have political traction. Iran is not going to "wipe Israel off the map" now or in the future, for what should be obvious reasons. Iran's desire for nuclear weapons, as far as the West can tell, are mostly internal.

Is it true that we don't want Iran to have nuclear weapons? Yes...that's true. Is it likely that Iran's nuclear program is actually a weapons program and not "peaceful?" Yes that's also most likely true. Does this mean that we have cause another, much greater debacle in the Middle East, in the process inspiring waves of Iranian-sponsored terrorists and alienating the modestly pro-western youth of that country? Does this mean that we have to (at our expense) be the patsy of our manipulative, extortionate "ally" in the region?

No.

 

I would suggest just going back to the middle ages, but I they seem to be stuck there already.

 

Exactly.

It's all just a bunch of stupid shit being spat out to promote various agendas (money raising, attention, etc.). I'm just concerned that, as unlikely as it is, at some point people with their fingers on the trigger are no longer going to be able to take the pressure from their "constituents" and are actually going to DO something about it. I'm also concerned that as of late, more presumably smart people in the media than ever would actually promulgate such freakin' lunacy!

 

Something that I've thought about that statement: I always assumed they meant they intend to destroy Israel with nuclear weapons, and that's definitely what the hawks want you to think, but couldn't it also mean that they'd like to see the land that is Israel divided into something that better portrays the actual political/religious structure of the land?

 

They're probably the most advanced, educated Middle Eastern country and our keeping them in the Middle Ages would seem to be one of their main gripes. They are not an unambitious country like many of the other theocratic ME countries out there, for everything I can tell.

I'm not defending some of their bolder posturing, but we're working very hard to keep them down and their feelings toward us seem largely corrolated to our past interactions with them.

 

If they are hurt by what we are doing to them then they can get rid of their unranium enrichment goals.

 

What enrichment level have they reached (or even 'claim' to have reached) and what is the enrichment level of weapons-grade?

From what I read over the years in The Economist, they have quite a long way to go...

China's response will be interesting, Iran is a major source of oil while Israel is their primary source of weapons and specifically, sophisticated military electronics... And China doesn't like their supply chain messed with.

 

I agree. I'm more concerned about the growing chorus of imbeciles (and their effect on public consensus) than anything else. It's pretty clear the Obama administration is not going to do anything rash, but hearing people in the media actually suggest if not insist that we attack Iran preemptively is still stunning!

 

Who really knows what Iran's stockpile of enriched U is currently at? I've heard 20%, if that's so then weapons grade (>90%) is not far off. A nuclear Iran will probably happen in 2012 or 2013 is my guess.

If Israel wants to act, let them. It won't change anything just delay the inevitable AND increase the chances of heightened future conflicts.

Now if Iran is stupid enough to attack the US that's another story. If they are nuclear and they use it...well I wouldn't want to be down wind.

 

One would think that those same media/war hawks/allies would still be busy hunting down the WMDs 'somewhere' in Iraq

 

We and our allies actively work to destroy them; why should we expect anything less in return? We have installed an illegitimate government in their country which is still in the memory of many in power there and they have since been attacked by neighboring countries. We've blown up research installations, murdered their scientists, violated their airspace, and generally installed ourselves against much opposition in their region of the world.

How could any reasonable person be surprised at their response? They want a nuclear weapon to deter our (moreso Israel's) meddling. It puts them on a more even playing field and keeps a check on countries that would mess with them. I'm not saying I want that or support it, but it seems like a pretty natural reaction from a country which is threatened on all sides by foreign powers. And in the end, they deny a push for the nuclear weapon; admittedly suspicious.

I would feel the exact same way. It seems to me that most people keep a very short window of time from which to judge these events and don't consider the larger context.

I think we're approaching the situation wrong. We will not get them to do what we want with threats and sanctions and espionage. We will only delay their nuclear ambitions, most people close to the situation seem to agree it is a simple inevitability. I wish we would bring Iran to the table and allow them to enter the global market. Keeping their citizens hungry, stopping access to modern luxuries. It does nothing but harden these people against us.

If we want war, we're doing a great job at picking a fight. I don't want war. I want peace. I feel that if you keep a country's citizens impoverished and ignorant and continue to poke their government with a big stick, you continue to grow a constituency that wants to poke you back. At some point it has to give. Either we grow up and treat them like the modern nation they want to be and hopefully they rise to the occasion (yea, there are no guarantees) or we prepare for war. I don't expect the first to happen. But I don't expect the latter to solve anything. I see us just ending up with another Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, or Egypt in the reason if we go to war with Iran. Another obliterated, unstable, angry country that we will pay to rebuild and will be as much a cesspool for militant groups as ever.

I guess I just have a little more hope for people when you allow them to surprise you. I'm an optimist. And in the end, if they disappoint, their tech is pretty laughable in most military regards and we've got a pretty big leg up if they need a pounding and I believe we can do what's needed to put them down. I doubt they'll ever get an opportunity to disappoint with the huge push we're getting for war, so it's all pretty moot.

 

Good post.

I had an interesting chat with Scott Ritter (former Chief Weapons Inspector, UNSCOM) a while ago, and he had some interesting things to say about Iran's actual capabilities. The net result is that the enrichment of uranium is a very complex and delicate process, requiring the proper use of thousands of very sophisticated and fairly delicate centrifuges, etc.. Although they have been able to acquire them in some number, Iran continues to have many severe problems in getting these centrifuges to work. The net result is that recent intelligence data (which is admittedly somewhat weak) indicated that they are in fact, not very far along.

That being said, Iran has another problem that Ritter brought up in our chat. Although they are a significant producer of petroleum products...they are also a significant consumer of said products! The net result is that they are nearly at that point on the graph where domestic consumption is nearing their total output. This little known fact also plays into the "China Equation," as it seems that Iran will be less and less a player in the world supply market, and possibly less important to the likes of China, et al. China has been heavily developing other garden spots (Sudan, Angola, etc.) in an effort to diversify themselves away from Iran (which currently accounts of about 11% of their oil imports) and otherwise favorably position themselves in these underdeveloped yet significant exporters.

The "Israel Question" in regards to China's hunger for sophisticated military hardware is another interesting wrinkle! Talk about caught between a rock and a hard place!

In the end, I think this is just more sabre rattling on the part of the Israeli government (specifically Likud) and her sycophants...let's hope so, as what we DON'T need to do is start a war with a foe that is much stronger than Iraq & Afghanistan put together!

 

You raise some good points. The problem is, with all due respect, your perspective exists in a righteous vacuum. In this case, there are a number of monied and powerful groups / PAC's pushing hard to "handle" Iran...groups with agendas which in NOT in line with what's best for America, even though they may be coming from inside America, that common sense and objective consideration of the Iranian perspective is shouted down or shoved aside.

 

Completely agree. I know my views are neither popular nor likely. I just think it's important to take the context of history into account, and their position suddenly becomes understandable -- even if over the top.

I know it's not in the interest of the powers that be to do so, and I know most people will feel as they're told to feel when presented with a hand-picked set of "facts".

 

Interesting seeing it brought up that Israel was a significant source for Chinese military technology. I didn't know that. Definitely adds another interesting dynamic to the situation.

 

Historical context is absolutely (and should be obviously) crucial when considering these things. I'm certainly no Iran-apologist, but given the fact that over the last 50+ years we've screwed with them far more than they've screwed with us, I can understand their resentment. If you also consider that Israel has engaged in enough espionage against the USA over the last 40 years to develop and maintain nuclear weapons and medium-range delivery systems...without penalty...yet Iran is getting ready to be bombed because they might have some nascent nuclear capability, their reason for being angry grows clearer.

 

If they can enrich to 20% then the 90s aren't that much more difficult. It isn't as delicate as certain groups lead on. That being said, their nuclear capabilities don't really worry me that much. Can't say as I blame them for wanting nuclear weapons if that's truly what they are doing. No major reason to go to 20% for power plants but the higher the enrichment the smaller you can make the plant(way simplified statement).

There is no reason to go to war with Iran. Now that does not include placing their Navy on the bottom of the ocean if they pull any bullshit with our Navy in the Straits.