The banks & the Fed are at it again

The bubble's going to burst again, there's another crash coming boys.

 

There's been alot of individuals/websites that have been saying that for 10+ years now, Peter Schiff is another one beating that drum. I'm not saying they are necessarily wrong but their timing has been way off and the fed has been able to keep things going alot longer than anyone anticipated. The stock market has kicked ass, unemployment has been low (depending on how you measure it), the fed has been pumping money into the system with seemingly little side effects. Will it all collapse, yeah someday but don't hold your breath.

 

Hadn't seen that, thanks for posting. I believe that some of it has merit. I know when I was a banker, funding your daily at the Fed window meant that you were scum and on life support. If those $ are rising as they claim, in an expanding economy, that's not positive, to say the least. I think that the comments on etfs were accurate.

 

Did this throughout Obama's term. Not saying I like it but the reason it is getting press now as they (the press) are hoping to crash the economy so Trump does not get reelected.

 

That's what I was thinking.

 

I saw or heard something the other day about how the inflation numbers were just as false or more than unemployment numbers. If you look at common items, cars, bikes, fuel, houses, electronics (phones), it sure seems like they are A LOT more expensive than they should be if corrected for the published inflation rates.

 

I believe these are the most recent CPI weights

 

over all there is a housing shortage in the US.
That means rentals are at record capacity with lots more building going on in the multi family market from what I observed on a recent trip to NJ and driving around town here.
All the new houses being built here, are mostly investor rentals... not new home buyers.

 

That might be a mortgage qualification issue too

 

Which is a good thing because the last collapse was partially to blame because bankers were qualifying people for mortgages they really couldn't afford. The money was too
easy to borrow and that lead to over inflated home prices. Eventually that bubble burst as we all know. Stricter lending practices helps avoid that from happening again hopefully.

 

that could be a part of it... but multi family in north jersey is booming. I saw 4 developments on the hudson and the smallest had 5 stories the largest had 12. All walking distance to transport, shopping, lifestyle maintenance purveyors, etc. A friend in the local real estate area said the pricing is starting at luxury level and going up. For empty nesters or DINKs that want NYC living/views, on the water, for 1/2 the price of being across the river. In my home town, up the hill... developers built twin 30 story high rises that are exclusively rentals... and there is a waiting list. If the market turns... you will probably see it go co-op like all "old" high rises eventually do. A 1 br goes for $3000... a 3br $8500 per month.

 

The plan was to increase home-ownership in the
lower-income levels and it ended up doing just
the opposite, the little people lost everything, the
rich got the opportunity to buy up a lot of homes
at fire-sale prices and a huge percentage of those
former homes are now rentals.

 

Amazing that the people who could not afford a home did not benefit when the market was forced to sell them one.

 

How do you know someone in investment finance doesn't have a clue? They publish their pet theory.

If they really had market insight, they would take a financial position exploiting that knowledge and keep their mouth closed to maximize profit.

 

Akshully....

They take the positions first, on the cheap.

Then they tell everyone else to get into it, driving the price up.

Then they sell and buy something else. (and short the position that they just pumped up)

Then they tell everyone else to get into the new next big thing, driving the price up. (and dropping the price of the last new big thing when everyone sells it to buy the new thing)

Wash rinse repeat.

 

LOL. Big money doesn't fall for amateur hour.

 

I've made a pretty decent penny on the precisely opposite viewpoint.

 

pump & dump...lol

 

Really? Then please do share! I'd love to find a strategy that can provably beat the bogle-heads over time. As would the rest of the investment community.