Midterms: Should we take bets on the results?

Anyone have any guesses on how it’ll all shake out? I’ve read articles and have seen polls that are all over the map. Some saying it’ll be a blue wave, others saying it’ll be a red tsunami. And still others are in between.

One thing I read that was interesting, and could have a major impact on the 2020 race, is that Ginsburg is slated to retire in Jan 2019 due to her cancer coming out of remission. Even if the Republicans lose the House, they’ll still likely hold the Senate. And that will set them up for another SCOTUS appointment.

Thoughts?

 

Republicans keep both and gain seats.

 

The same polling firms that said that Hillary was a 98% certainty for victory is crowing about a blue wave.
They were wrong as f@ck two years ago but they think we forgot how off they were before.

 

While I take Hannity at face value, the project veritas stuff I listened to seemed to be interesting. Short story is the undercover agents found that the "middle ground" dems that are running are not middle ground at all. They are saying they are middle ground to the public but plan on going bat shit liberal left when elected.

 

You forgot, and I'm surprised they're not also using this: "...and they'll take away all your guns!"

We know the gun industry is sourly missing the Obama years....

 

His greatest accomplishment. Best gun salesman of all time.

 

Nate Silver is a sage

 

Many polls are taking their numbers from the amount of registered Democrats and a Republicans and are hoping that people vote straight party ticket.

 

The polling business model that once worked is flawed in today's world. With caller ID and a lot of people ditching their landline, no one answers the phone anymore except for old people who have nothing else to do with their day.

 

Not to mention assholes like me who skew these polls in weird and misleading directions.

I was going to vote Green party and socialist more than a few times if you believe them

 

I saw a little while ago that people were getting so sick of all the multiple polling calls that they were lying to the pollsters and telling them the opposite of how they planned to vote. So I don't put much faith in them.

Edit - People like Dave.

 

I like letting them gabble on for a couple of minutes and then ask them if it's OK for them to encourage a non-citizen to vote, it always goes very quiet at that point.

 

The draw back to misleading them and then laughing about it is the mailings you get after they sell the info.

Still, the thought of some people I know being in support of higher taxes to fund the ultra left, voting for Hillary and strongly supporting Pelosi makes it worthwhile.

 

Well, apparently you can put your money where your beliefs are:

Betting on the US elections is apparently going strong outside the US.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news...rms-illinois-govenor-race-20181023-story.html

 

Narrowly hold the house. Pick up 3 or 4 seats in the senate. Keeping even a narrow majority in the house is paramount. If Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, Adam Schiff running the House Intelligence Committee and therefore taking over the Russia investigation, and Maxine Waters as the Financial Services chair with oversight over U.S. banking isn't enough to get you off your ass and vote, I don't know what is.
Let that sink in folks.

Vote red.

 

I know what outcome I want midterms are just hard you never know. At this point it’s all feelings with very little data. I don’t trust polls and don’t think a lot of people do anymore. But when Obama had his midterms I knew dems were going to lose. I feel the same way I think the more hyperbolic the media gets on common sense isssues. The more people are getting fed up. The left has been on a losing streak since Obama in every election cycle. I think that trend will continue. They really have nothing for the middle of the road voter to vote for. The middle doesn’t like the shouting down calls to violence against elected officials. Yes screaming at someone forcing them to leave a restaurant is domestic violence. So that’s my thought and feelings I can be totally wrong.

 

Looks like the betting odds are running along my line of thinking. R keeps the Senate and D takes the house, although the Democrats taking the house is a closer to call, and probably a lot harder to call as well, with so many more individual elections to handicap in order to come up with the right number in the end.

 

If the Dems take the house they have 66 individual investigations of the Trump admin ready to go.

Nothing will happen for two years but investigations. Nothing. The MAGA agenda will be dead. We will regress.

 

FIFY

 

I could have won big in 2016 had I known about this.