School me on investing...

From what I could fine online he practiced what he preaches and paid cash

 

I follow a lot of his money management principles. It works just as the math would tell you it would work. Why do you think I had a half million sitting around to toss at the market? It is currently being layered into our investments at appropriate times for future use. I really didn't want to bother with the hassle of a construction loan but that will be a small price to pay by comparison to the earning potential it will have as the market returns.

 

Gambling

Let me tell you what Boeing is worth right now... $98/stock. Perfect market theory states all the Bulls and Bears collectively meet at $98. In any bell curve of value expectations, some will be in both the extreme Bull and Bear tails.

Investing

Boeing by itself is not an investment

 

Market theory doesn't mean shit when the Fed keeps intervening

 

I'm not really following your thought here.....but yes, you are correct its worth about 98 right now.

Are you saying you think it will never go higher or lower than 98????? ....If you are saying I'm gambling at 98, then yes, I agree.

Its been a long-term investment for me with handsome rewards. I mostly got out months ago and made alot.

I got back in at 98 recently.

School me on your statement sir.

 

Boils down to: the market is always right.

But, since the price will be different in 10 minutes, you can also say that the market is always wrong.

But at any given point in time, the market is always right.

 

Perfect market theory. And yes the Feds action are part of that.

 

For every seller at 98, who think I have to exit this position because it's a dog or I have better opportunity elsewhere there is a buyer who thinks that's a good price I think I will do well at 98.

Thus, the current price always reflects the total combined view of the market. 50% believe it stays even or goes up and 50% believe money is better allocated elsewhere.

 

I'd say is a good buy.

May have to sit on it for a while but you'll get your money back and then some.

 

Thats what the GM shareholders thought too ... and to be fair, I have 1 share of boeing @ $264 and I'm hating myself for it lol...

Today I made a good bit on GTT .... bought in at $5.25 and sold a few hours later at $8.25 I shoud've held out though cuz it got back up to $9

 

When the Fed increases it 's balance sheet like they have over the last two weeks there is no market, "perfect" or otherwise, there is only the Fed


-913 today after the Fed threw the kitchen sink at the market this week

 

So take the loss now against all the gains you’ve made.

 

The central banks have done their job with monetary policy. Now it's time for fiscal and social policy.

Look up perfect markets theory (econ) and efficient markets hypothesis (financial econ). Neither of them have anything to do with describing the market rising or falling.

 

Thank you for this, they sure have
https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/what-is-the-efficient-market-hypothesis.aspx
https://www.forbes.com/sites/invest...s-is-the-stock-market-efficient/#451536f276a6
I stand by what I said, I'm not living in fairy land

 

An expert on Boeing:

https://twitter.com/KeziyahL/status/1240601027465936897?s=19

 

Sorry Phil, I'm not being political here, but I dont see much there except AOC and Illan spreading mis-information in their political favor.

Can you cut and paste this "experts" statements?

As far as Aerospace experts, people like Loran Thompson (possible misspelling, etc) get my attention. He is more Defense, but that is relevant with Boeing....again, 2nd largest Defense Contractor in the world.

I think it really depends WHEN you bought it at 264 should be driving your feelings.

If you bought it last year or earlier on the way up, then saw it rise to 440, and you held on hoping for MORE......and here you are today at 100.....I'd be hating myself too. Greed hurts my friend.

I've found, for myself, I set my "Sell Threshold" for both Boeing and Lockheed around $350. When Boeing hit 350 (going up), I "scraped the cream" so-to-speak, and transferred a big chunk into stable value, but left some (25-35%) in Boeing......did I miss out on 350-440, yeah, but I'm not being greedy.

I should have dumped it when it came back to 350 from 440, but I missed it.

I've held onto what I have partially because (Im being told by 401K), IF I WITHDRAWL Boeing money (not transfer or sell) , Ill be TAXED at what I BOUGHT it for, not what I SELL it for.....so...

Besides the little "Jump back in" on Boeing, my next move may be a WITHDRAWL when Im eligible with no penalty next year....and Ill be TAXED at 30-40, or 100 on my newer stuff.

I will miss the dividends tho.....its only been a few hundred every quarter, and that could be BIG for me when I "retire" early and am not eligible for SS yet......I'm drawing my Lockheed Pension right now (2 yrs early), but it is not a pot of gold.....about 1,200 a month......I'm hoping that pension, dividends from LM and Boeing, plus little dips into my savings and profits will keep me going until I hit SS at 62......I'm still working full time right now, but at a reduced rate from my last BAE Systems USN job, so I can work in ATL and work when I want to.

I wont go into debts, but only outgoing payment is mortgage that ends next year. No other debt, paid cash.

Hey, I could be wrong gents, but I've watched and owned Boeing stock for 30 years, and I'm at hold and buy right now.....and staying there.

 

Oh, and for clarity.....Did Boeing handle things badly? yes, of course I agree....But

I dont think they will fold, AND I think their stock will go up from where it is now.

Thats all I'm really saying.

If I'm wrong and they do fold, yes that will suk, but heck, the money I have in there now is strictly profits, so ehhhh....

 

How do you guys manage having all this dry powder to invest right now? Presumably that would mean either:

1) You've hoarded cash for a while, which means you've missed the run-up over the past several years of crazy growth
2) You timed the market quite well and sold a month ago and are now reinvesting (if so, that's amazing and you're almost certainly in the wrong profession)
3) You're taking out liquidity from anywhere you can (mortgages, etc.) in order to buy in right now

In any case, I'm definitely jelly - the overwhelming majority of my net worth is in the market (index funds - wife is in investment management so trading individual stocks is more trouble than it's worth with pre-clearance, and rightly or wrongly I come from an asset management background so I consider active investing by amateurs to be the equivalent of betting against the house). I threw 2/3 of my dry powder into the market at 27,500, and have been debating tossing in another chunk now but TBH, if the world is ending I think I'd rather hedge my bets and have that chunk of cash. Doing the math, I'm somewhat indifferent on my investment horizon (I turned 40 in November) of "remaining chunk" vs "remaining chunk * 1.5", so I'm gonna hide it under my mattress at this point.

 

The world is not ending. Behaviors will change. Mechanisms of trade may change but things will go on. Just as they have before.

 

Great perception! I like the "dry powder" analogy. I dont get all of it (your comments / situation), but....thanks for the compliment.....DEFINETLY #2.....

As far as wrong profession, even us losers get lucky sometimes!.....I learned alot in 2008. I made a bunch of changes in October 2019. Even with my remaining Boeing Stock being down 60%, Lockheed down 22%, my overall portfolio is down just 4.5%.....I scraped all the early BA and LMT profits into stable value and bond funds in Oct.

The best thing I did was set that $350 threshold....and stuck to it.

You are still young. Dont get greedy.

At first I was like Woo-hoo! I saved a bunch of cash!!!!!....then it hit me....holy crap, its time to make more!....like a double dip!

I dont have a bunch of cash (except 401K balance), but also have no debt besides the mortgage that will be paid off next year. 2019 GMC cash, actually that was the wifes ENTIRE 401K, but thats another topic all together....2013 Tacoma, couple streetbikes VFR and an HD, 67 RS / SS Camaro.....all paid for thru the years....I'm considering selling the Camaro and buying a used motorhome.....maybe a small tractor too.

Wife is on SS and medicare.