investing in property in pigeon forge, sevierville tn

WOW !

 

Reason for this is realtors are pricing to high and getting greedy. We as realtors need to educate our sellers that first off we are going into the slow season especially if you live up north when it gets cold. People do not want to move when there kids are in school, they wait till the early spring to start looking for a home. Second home that get put on the market from Oct through the spring cannot be price the way they were in the spring and summer, you already missed that market you price for the near future or else you will be chasing the correct price and miss out on buyers buy price changes (dropping the price)every 2-3 weeks. If you would have correct priced the house in the first place this would not have happened and your house would not be sitting for 6 months. EDUCATE you clients especially sellers.

 

I don't this the market is going to crash but in some markets in the US they will cool off a bit because the price hikes where getting out of hand. I know the Austin and Nashville market are 2 markets (there are more) that were getting stupid with pricing. Those markets I can see a decent price drop or slow down soon. But in the midwest I think the process for houses are in the correct spot and will not drop. Also in the Chicagoland area we are at a 2 month supply on homes. For it to be a buyers market it we need to be at a 5 month supply. I don't see that happening for a few years.

 

My favorite is when Zillow has a home valued at 500k then a week later it's listed for sale at 750k and the Zillow estimate also magically goes to 750k and any history of it being at 500k mysteriously disappears.

 

That's because the Zillow info is fed by the MLS system.

They estimate values based off recent market data....if said house hasn't been on the market in 10-15 years, but has been updated and kept up and the owners take advantage of the market and list, that is new data specific to said house and the system automatically updates with MLS listing info.

 

How close do you guys find the tax assessment values to be to selling prices ? I always figured my assessment was what it's worth but I've lived here for 30 yrs.

 

Housing bubble vs. Not.

Lets not look at the US as a whole. There is a huge discrepancy in prices between different areas. Some places will simply become not affordable for the middle and lower classes. Nor will they become desirable due to taxation rates, and liberal insanity for upper echelons. (Anyone been to Seattle recently - is a good example)

Lets look at the population migration patterns. Not many people can afford, or want to live in areas like LA, Seattle, NY...etc. They are either selling their homes for stupid money and moving to places like Arizona, Georgia, Tennessee, Florida.... or moving cause they can't afford to buy anything to own. Some are taking HELOCs or investing in second homes in other areas of the US prior to getting the hell out. I personally know many people who are literally fleeing these insanely expensive states.

So, in areas where housing is still affordable and jobs available, there will be no stagnation and prices would continue to rise. Others will have a micro bubble burst. Home prices would eventually level out with the crazy states in the next (how many years?) as migration continues.

I am putting my money where my mouth is, and we have invested in GA & Florida.

 

I'm no realtor, but in my case assessment has always been less than it what it was worth.

 

my buddy just liquidated all of his NJ holdings and is fleeing to AZ. His girlfriend is a realtor there so he did ok. Prices are crazy though because of the flight in surrounding States.
I dont see AZ slowing... Ga & Fl will always have that migration of Northeasterners

 

Not even close here in the Ville. My assessment last year was $421K and my house is worth $700K+ But a lot of that is due to being very fortunate with the 3 L's.

 

Understand there are laws/rules for mortgages, on renting out, and understand there are rental laws/rules, where you can only live in it X amount of days, yourself. make sure you do your homework. Ski

 

I dropped the idea. After doing the math I figured we could do years worth of vacations all over rather than have to deal with one place. We're nomads at heart

 

Not necessarily. If you're looking to keep investing, there is what's called a 1031 tax deferred exchange. The rules are a PITA and it can be kind of cumbersome but, done properly, you basically get to roll all your proceeds forward into more properties. The end game then becomes to never sell anything outright, transfer to your kids/heirs at death wherein the property base price is stepped up, essentially zeroing out the profit from a tax perspective. From a state income perspective, TN is one of the states where there is no income or investment/dividends tax. They've been phasing it out over a 5 year period, which i believe to be complete as of this year.

 

General thoughts after reading the whole thread from a full time REI;

Zestimates are useless garbage, but you can run comps the same way realtors and appraisers do by using the "Sold" parameter on zillow, setting the time frame to no longer than the last 6 months, and looking at the comparable (bed/bath/sq ft) houses that sold within a 1 mile radius. This will get you close....there is MLS info that would affect comps that zillow doesn't have access to such as whether or not there were seller concessions, but it'll get you close, anyway.

Zillow works perfectly fine as a rental platform...we've advertised and rented units via zillow. It's nice because the application process and background check is all handled right through zillow, or was at the time we were using it. It's good for small landlords that may not have tenant handbook/rental procedures in place when you're starting out to keep you legal. It is but one tool, and under a certain amount of properties, they don't charge you to list.

Assessments are often but not always priced under property values in order to avoid arguments and lawsuits between property owners and gov officials. Sometimes you can find a pattern, IE "assessments are roughly 80% of sales values," but any such rule would be local and fleeting.

AirBNB from afar is made easier by partnering with full time, professional cohosts. These people do nothing but STR management all day long...you buy the property, they tell you how to decorate it to maximize return, and then they take over, lining up rentals and arranging cleaning and repair. The gentleman in our area does this for 10%. STR can be incredibly lucrative, especially compared to LTR on the same property but I will comment two things; A)AirBNB is routinely making TOS changes that shaft their owners, and B)The dream of every STR owner is to lock in the unicorn that's in town for business for 8 months and has a nice, fat housing stipend to cover the 3x normal market rate.

General comments on coming recession/correction...you don't have to look far via google to know that we're in a world of shit across the board. Anyone anywhere that understood accounting and econ 101 can tell you that this path is not sustainable. You cannot run deficits forever, nor can you forever live on credit and good graces.

Re: Recession - If you think you've got the stomach to be an entrepreneur, go take a swing at it. Things are going to go on sale and if you have the cash, credit and experience to pull the trigger, deals will be had and fortunes will be made. I heard this in a podcast one time and it stuck, i'm going to paraphrase: "What's the worst that could happen? You have to go back to W2 employment and pay off your debts. Your worst case scenario is everybody else's normal day."