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Retirement plans?

Discussion in 'General' started by cortezmachine, Dec 12, 2020.

  1. aftriathlete

    aftriathlete Well-Known Member

    I’ll bite. Please explain the context I am missing. My assessment of the context is the US economy is long overdue for a recession, probably a depression at this point, but the Federal Reserve, that per the Constitution is supposed to be independent and disconnected from the government to avoid being subject to the political pressure of the moment, is instead exactly that, subject to the political pressure of the moment. That’s not a political red vs. blue argument, that’s both parties’ influence in the last decade and the state of American Politics. So the Federal Reserve is printing exponentially more money now than they ever have in the history of the Federal Reserve. And the US Dollar is on a 3-year low right this second and is still falling, so maybe in a month it’s a 10-yr low, maybe in a year it’s a 50-yr low? And the context is that money printing as a result of this election is going to at least continue at the current rate, but most likely will expand further as the Democrats will tell you they stand for government spending, which also isn’t political, you can find that on the Democratic Party website.
     
  2. aftriathlete

    aftriathlete Well-Known Member

    Well you are assuming Mad Max and we are going to be standing amongst a group of starving people bartering for survival needs. At least that’s the implication you’re making. That’s ok if you see that as the future, I don’t necessarily. I don’t see the collapse of the monetary system in my lifetime, I do see the collapse of the value of the Us Dollar in the next 5 years.
    Same comment as above. For some reason all of you are jumping to a conclusion that I’m saying literal doomsday is coming and you’re going to have to trade your children for rice and beans. It’s all funny internet talk, but I think it’s because it’s the internet and you’re not reading what I’m actually saying because people just don’t do that nowadays. I also said all commodities are going to be a better store of value than the USD.

    And find me a government bond, which I assume you mean when you say “even bonds”, that is yielding more than inflation this year. Find me any one, I’ll wait. Price of gold is up 19% though since Jan 1, and 24% since March 19th though.

    Edit: insert mandatory internet expert comment about “but the stock market is up blah blah blah.” Yeah, please refer to my post about Federal Reserve new money printing.
     
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2020
  3. Venom51

    Venom51 John Deere Equipment Expert - Not really

    The context you are missing is the Fed was never seperate or independent and anyone that thought otherwise at any time is a fool. The only reason our currency has any value is becasue we all agree it does and up until some point in the likely near future so does the rest of the world. The moment that changes it won't matter how much gold you are holding or how many dollars I am holding. The currency will die and a new one will take its place. Every chance a loaf of bread will cost trillions of dollars and you still wont be able to buy one with a gold nugget.
     
  4. aftriathlete

    aftriathlete Well-Known Member

    Are you saying that what is happening in the last 10 years has a precedent? The Federal Reserve has always been this way or “you’re a fool?” Clearly the image of the money supply i posted didn’t go back far enough. This image goes back to 1980. The Federal Reserve is in new territory.

    I’m violently agreeing with you that the value of our currency, and the value of all currencies, is super tenuous though.
     

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  5. SPL170db

    SPL170db Trackday winner

    My plan is that the world won't make it 'til I reach retirement age. :crackup:
     
  6. In Your Corner

    In Your Corner Dungeonesque Crab AI Version

    Why wouldn't they just kill you, keep the gold, and choke your chicken?
     
    MachineR1 likes this.
  7. SuddenBraking

    SuddenBraking The Iron Price

    @aftriathlete

    The Fed can stay irrationally printing money longer than you can stay solvent. I wouldn’t bet against the output of the guy with the printer. I also have my reservations that historical inverse correlation between the real purchasing power of gold and the real purchasing power of the USD will hold going forward.

    To the extent the majority of the rest of the world believes in our printing power, your strategy seems like a loser to me.

    Will all due respect (sincerely, and thank you for your service), I’d talk to a financial advisor about your strategy.
     
  8. Venom51

    Venom51 John Deere Equipment Expert - Not really

    Always a possibility but I'm not sure why they would abuse me after killing me. :D
     
  9. StaccatoFan

    StaccatoFan My 13 year old is faster than your President

    @aftriathlete Why are you staying in the Air Force? I ask because if you're so worried and doomed and gloomed on the value of the US dollar, you know what your pension will be dispersed in right? US dollars. By your logic, the financial value of your service, to you, is dwindling as the days go buy. They're not going to pay your pension in gold, so why stay?

    This coming from a fellow USAF vet who got out because he saw the lack of value of staying to 20, and doesn't regret the move a single bit.
     
  10. cav115

    cav115 Well-Known Member


    Growth fund of America
     
  11. Mongo

    Mongo Administrator

    Y'all need to stop now....
     
  12. auminer

    auminer Renaissance Redneck

    Have you passed the 20 year anniversary of standing on the yellow footprints yet?

    Oh, wait... you said Air Force. The 20th anniversary of checking in to the hotel.

    Those of us that went to actual boot camps will understand the yellow footprints comment. :Poke:

    Anyway, I felt a twinge that day.

    :D
     
    tony 340 likes this.
  13. StaccatoFan

    StaccatoFan My 13 year old is faster than your President

    June 3 1990. I’m just a few years past 20 years that I entered the USAF New Hire Orientation class.
     
    auminer likes this.
  14. Phl218

    Phl218 .

    retiring or making plans about it?
     
    jrsamples likes this.
  15. aftriathlete

    aftriathlete Well-Known Member

    Yeah on Mongo’s advice I’m tapping out of this conversation. So I’ll share my parting thoughts on this topic and then I’ll go back to complaining about Kawasaki not bringing the ZX-25R to the US. I’m actually embarrassed I engaged to the level that I did, I know there is no convincing anyone of anything on the internet and social media. Some of you seem to hold some long-held beliefs sacred, and frankly, a lot of what I’m hearing is tripe to me. The Robin Hood crowd in 2020 seems to think that this time is different, “don’t bet against the guy with the printing press,” “this time is different, for the first time in 5000 years that human civilization has valued gold as a commodity and a currency this time it’s different and the correlation between gold and purchasing power isn’t going to hold.” Well I got a “good luck with that” above, so to those with that perspective, I’ll offer you the same. I’m a long-time stock market investor with a healthy stash of US dollars tied up in IRAs/Roth IRAs/TSP, so my strategy is just fine. But frankly, I’m more open-minded to see things for what they are currently than to rest on “don’t bet against the Fed” kinds of internet forum financial advice. Remember when I said yesterday the US Dollar is at a 3-year low? Yeah, it went down another .3% in the last 24 hours, which if we are resting on history and what we think we know, well a .3% drop in the US dollar has historically been reserved for times of national crisis. But it’s just December 15th this time.


    It’s obvious to me that many of the replies I’m getting here are from people not actually reading what I’m saying. Another reference to my “doom and gloom” predictions, which I don’t think I’m making, and questions on why I’m even in the Air Force if I think US Dollars are going to be worth much less in the future than they are now. And that’s a pretty personal question, but I’ll oblige and tell you that 1) I love what I do and the people I work with and the mission I perform; 2) the paycheck is good now; 3) The Federal Reserve atomic bomb on USD purchasing power of 2020 did not occur until this year, at my 16th year of service to our country; and 4) there is currently no other job option I know of that pays in gold, or any other commodity for that matter, so it still takes cash to buy commodities. Which I’m doing steadily with my extra income after I have left my IRA and TSP contributions to the Fed-driven stock market unchanged. Because maybe I’m wrong, and anyway, even gold bugs will never tell you to go all in on any one thing, so I’m currently at 5-6% of my total portfolio in precious metals with that gradually increasing over time to probably 10-15%. My strategy is just fine. YMMV.


    Now I’m gonna go find some diesel truck threads to bump.
     
    Phl218 likes this.
  16. auminer

    auminer Renaissance Redneck

    See... As of June, you could be retired on 3/4 of what you already could barely get by on. :)
     
    R Acree and StaccatoFan like this.
  17. auminer

    auminer Renaissance Redneck

    All of the above, but more silver.

    Especially with its uses in "environmentally friendly" industries, and the historically high gold/silver ratio.

    Spreads on physical PMs are for shit, though.
     
    aftriathlete likes this.
  18. jrsamples

    jrsamples Banned

     
  19. ChemGuy

    ChemGuy Harden The F%@# Up!

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