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The Bitcoin Thread

Discussion in 'The Dungeon' started by six6two, Dec 5, 2013.

  1. SGVRider

    SGVRider Well-Known Member

    Money is whatever we accept as a medium of exchange. If the US were largely obliterated in a nuclear war, the irradiated survivors would be using greenbacks as fire tindling and buying goods and services with bullets, food, medicine and other scarce goods made by our former civilization. Bitcoin has value because the people that are using it agree that it does. If it achieves large scale marketplace penetration wherein it were a currency used at least as widely as the dollar, I'd argue that it's even more credible. I don't think it'll happen quickly though. It doesn't really confer enough of an advantage to displace state backed currencies. I do think cryptocurrencies have a future, but I think block chain will have a much bigger impact since state currency already works well enough.
     
  2. Sweatypants

    Sweatypants I am so smart! S-M-R-T... I mean S-M-A-R-T!

    The volatility is what's gotta go away before that'll ever happen. Nobody (and i dont mean you guys, i mean large institutions) will never jump to something like that. Fx markets and the amount of large scale currencies available globally at least do somewhat of a job of keeping things steady or keeping trends with small daily change. Bitcoin right now is like... some dude gets mad at some other dude then starts a new currency the next day. You cant be having that shit if you wanna make it a major player. Maybe that slowly dies away overtime with more penetration, who knows...
     
  3. GixxerBlade

    GixxerBlade Oh geez

    Unfortunately, governments are starting to crack down on Bitcoin with China about to outlaw cryptocurrency exchanges. Cryptocurrencies are obviously a danger to central banks as they see no return on a decentralized system. I think China's decision is a start of the cryptocurrency speculation dominoes falling. They and the USG have already announced that initial coin offerings are not allowed anymore. Bitcoin is the first to fall with a $1000 downswing on Bitcoin price in about a two week period. Bitcoin price also fell in the past 24 hours because JP Morgan CEO said Bitcoin is a fraud. I really think now, regulators are not going to play nice with Bitcoin. Is it still a transformational, disruptive technology? I think it is but any parabolic rise is over, for now.
     
  4. SGVRider

    SGVRider Well-Known Member

    Bitcoin and other crypto currencies will grow organically. Extant institutions such as governments and banks aren't going to support it because it's a threat to them and they have huge investments in the current infrastructure. However, it's an idea whose time has come and no matter what institutions do people will use it if it's beneficial.

    I don't believe Bitcoin's (and by extension other cryptocurrencies) main impediment to widespread adoption is institutional. It's the fact that current payment methods already work well enough for the end user and everything in our financial lives is denominated in state currency. The switching cost of Bitcoin is simply too high and doesn't confer enough benefit for most people.

    Bitcoin will need:

    1. A killer application or applications not easily replicated with state currency.

    2. For the influence of states to substantially weaken.

    I believe both will happen over the course of many decades. It's going to be a case of glacial but unstoppable advance, not revolutionary change.
     
  5. Sweatypants

    Sweatypants I am so smart! S-M-R-T... I mean S-M-A-R-T!

    possibly... we'll see i guess. anything's possible. for now it just seems to me like a libertarian's or speculator's wet dream. one of those is borderline dillusional... the other, if he doesn't buy what he's selling, can make a killing (comparable to a cocaine dealer that never does drugs and has awesome business prowess). i came back specifically to this thread just now to see if anyone was talking about the two things in the post above. JP Morgan dude is a dickbag, but still... he's gonna have influence. the China one definitely way way worse.

    let the ass fall out of it again though like it did a couple years back. maybe i'd scoop a few just to see if there'd be another mountain cause why not, i like money making however it seems like a decent bet, i don't care about the passion for that thing or to be an advocate, only what that thing can net me. i'll take a 10x return in a year any day on almost anything.
     
  6. sheepofblue

    sheepofblue Well-Known Member

    I would consider 10% a poor return on something of that risk level. 20-30% minimum.
     
  7. Sweatypants

    Sweatypants I am so smart! S-M-R-T... I mean S-M-A-R-T!

    10%??? I said 10x. Didn't it go from like $400 to $4000 in like 8 months? Fuck 10% haha no kidding... i can do that playing poker and futures on the S&P. 1000% peaks my interest tho.
     
    sheepofblue likes this.
  8. turtlecreek

    turtlecreek Well-Known Member

    When this thread started, it was $600ish....It's over $17000 now...I am surprised no one is bringing this back up, so I ask the question Mongo asked a while back: Has anyone on the board made any money with bitcoin? Surely with all the growth, someone has cashed in their millions? :) For full disclosure, I finally threw some money at it on Nov 1. Small amount for giggles. I chose an ETF because I am to big of a wimp, but it is up 144% in 45 days. Absolutely ridiculous, but if I keep it, the money still spends the same whether I earned it or just won it "vegas style".
     
  9. HPPT

    HPPT !!!

    You should try looking outside the dungeon occasionally. ;)
     
    turtlecreek likes this.
  10. turtlecreek

    turtlecreek Well-Known Member

    ah, good point. i live outside the dungeon, so i come here specifically for the entertainment of the dungeon. :)
     
  11. turtlecreek

    turtlecreek Well-Known Member

    ok, wait....i went to general and saw nothing that popped out about bitcoin...??
     
  12. HPPT

    HPPT !!!

    It hasn't left the front page in days!
     
  13. turtlecreek

    turtlecreek Well-Known Member

    doh! there it is. thanks.
     
  14. SGVRider

    SGVRider Well-Known Member

    He’s kind of like a Chinese girl at Speedy’s house. Once he goes down the stairs he never comes out again.
















    :D
     
    G 97 likes this.
  15. XFBO

    XFBO Well-Known Member

    Any chitchat regarding that LiteCoin? Looks like another missed opportunity but dang tlk about risky???
     
  16. Sweatypants

    Sweatypants I am so smart! S-M-R-T... I mean S-M-A-R-T!

    [​IMG]
     
  17. sheepofblue

    sheepofblue Well-Known Member

    Nope no Bitcoin I got mine the old fashioned way; work then, live below your means and save. I might consider a grand of play money with the idea I could loose it all but I would have to learn how it works and give a crap so I will pass and wait to hear the wailing when the bubble pops. Tulips anyone?
     
  18. GixxerBlade

    GixxerBlade Oh geez

    Yes. I cashed out when it was $4kish and bought when it was $13xx. Should I have I kept it? Probably but I’m not regretting it. It’s still not too late to get in as a speculative asset. Just as in anything speculative only spend what you can afford to lose. I predict about $40k/BTC by middle of 2018. Also Litecoin and Ethereum!!
     
  19. GixxerBlade

    GixxerBlade Oh geez

  20. SGVRider

    SGVRider Well-Known Member

    I bought in with some play around money. I believe I can make some money on it wish discipline. If I lose most of my principal it won’t hurt me.

    I don’t believe the prices for most crypto currencies are sustainable, however I do believe that the concept’s time is arriving. The sell off was due to fears spread by potential state intervention. I think it will crater somewhat and then rally. I believe the sell off is from speculators spooked by the prospect of state intervention. The state can’t overcome cultural, economic, and technological pressures forever. Look at legal weed in the US. They can make life difficult in the short term, that’s it.

    I do believe some crypto currencies are a bubble but not all, I look at it like the dot com boom and bust. Yeah most of those companies blew up, but some internet 1.0 companies exploded in value and delivered huge returns for investors. Amazon was part of that and look what they are now. Even eBay is hugely valuable even if a minnow compared to Amazon. PayPal started in that era too. It’s hard to tell who will survive the winnowing.

    This is only the first applicayion to be developed on the blockchain. There will be huge opportunity for other blockchain derived technologies down the road.

    If you’re speculating on Crypto you can always offset the volatility by going long on a non correlated asset. Futures on commodities offer plenty of potential non correlated assets. I did an analysis for an options selling company once of the effect of sociopolitical and economic events on futures using the CAPM, it turns out there are many that don’t correlate at all. Though the analysis is of course limited by the inherent conceits and weaknesses of the model.
     

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