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Advent of ride sharing and self driving cars, what does it mean for motorcycles?

Discussion in 'General' started by SGVRider, Feb 28, 2017.

  1. SGVRider

    SGVRider Well-Known Member

    I'm curious to hear what you guys think about the future of motorcycles and racing vis a vis the onslaught of ride sharing and self driving cars.

    From the research I've done and the clear economic superiority of self driving vehicles, I strongly believe that in major metropolitan areas car ownership will be virtually extinct in 2 generations. My son is 18 months and we live in Los Angeles, I give it 50/50 odds that he'll ever have a need for a driver's license. Certainly his kids won't. If we accept this premise as likely, what do you all think will be the impact on motorcycles?

    I think that if handled correctly, it's a tremendous opportunity for the industry and racing. As the proportion of people who own vehicles and can drive them rapidly declines, I think it's likely that owning a vehicle and driving it yourself might be regarded as a status symbol. Motorcycles already have natural appeal, I think that people might be much more apt to ride if it's positioned as rebellion against pervasive technology. Likewise, I think racing could easily gain more appeal as it's a demonstration of human skill and ability.

    This of course is predicated on the industry surviving in the face of any regulatory onslaught. I can see a day in about 40-50 years where human control is either no longer allowed on public streets or the insurance is so expensive that it becomes cost prohibitive to do so. Bikes are already regarded in some circles as murder cycles, if the industry isn't careful this might become the normal attitude in this future.

    I know we have many hugely knowledgeable people here, what do you guys think about the role of motorcycles in our robo car future?
     
  2. R Acree

    R Acree Banned

    I am glad I will not likely live to see this transpire.
     
    GSmann and crashman like this.
  3. BMW is already preparing for it with that concept bike (from one of the recent issues of RRW).

    I think your reference to your son is a stretch. I just don't see anything like that happening in 16 years. Going from what we have now, to fully automated roadways, I just don't see it. Hell there are still roads all over the country that aren't even paved yet.

    Not to mention that there are people still driving cars made in the 60's and 70's. Who is going to buy everyone a new car?

    The level of automation are talking about actually becoming a reality is probably 40-50 years away, IMO.
     
    418 and TurboBlew like this.
  4. dtalbott

    dtalbott Driving somewhere, hauling something.

    :stupid:

    First they have to figure out who gets blamed when the self driving car crashes.
     
    TX Joose likes this.
  5. pickled egg

    pickled egg Tell me more

    That's easy.

    AlGore. :D
     
  6. crashman

    crashman Grumpy old man

    :stupid:
    Read the short story "the Marching Morons" by C.M. Kornbluth. I think that is where we as a society are headed.
     
  7. 2blueYam

    2blueYam Track Day Addict

    I believe that Yamaha and BMW are already experimenting with self "driving" motorcycles. Motorcycles are too big a staple in too much of the world just to fade into the distance. They will adapt and become part of this as well. If you think it can't be done, 25 years ago, people would have told you it was impossible to build a Segway that was capable of balancing it self well enough to be used by the general public.

    As an intermediate measure at some point you will probably have to get an electronic device on your vintage vehicle / motorcycle so that all the automated vehicles around it can be aware of it, since they will all be on the grid and talking to each other.
     
  8. R Acree

    R Acree Banned

    Sooooo...any wagers on how long after the automation it will take for a hacker to crash (pun intended) the system?
     
  9. BHP41

    BHP41 Calling out B.A.N. everyday

    Well. The helmets manufacturers are gonna have to step up their game. Hard to see today's ones lasting when head butting the terminator because he pulled out in front of you.

    Edit: and Broome will need to have a iron fist fitted for uppercuts.
     
    Gorilla George likes this.
  10. stk0308

    stk0308 Well-Known Member

    It's already happening. New bluetoothed/WiFi'ed cars can be hacked from outside the vehicle and "driven" through control of the fly by wire throttle.
     
    badmoon692008 likes this.
  11. G 97

    G 97 Garth

    You simply flip off all the passengers for the car not seeing you and cutting you off. :D
     
  12. R Acree

    R Acree Banned

    The potential for mayhem is tremendous
     
    stk0308 likes this.
  13. cha0s#242

    cha0s#242 Ignorance and prejudice and fear walk hand in hand

    As with many new technologies, I don't think self driving will completely faze out user operated vehicles. There will be regular vehicles for quite a while, but they will slowly become minority. When ? Hard to tell. I'm thinking it will be two generations (about 60 years from now) before most young ones have completely no clue how to use or no use for a user driven/ridden vehicle.
     
  14. Mongo

    Mongo Administrator

    No change in my lifetime or probably even the grandkids lifetime. At most I can see changes for more electric machines as batteries get better but no way the internal combustion will be gone any time soon. I don't see any real call for racing programmable vehicles, no point in it. Maybe remote control like drones.
     
    V5 Racer likes this.
  15. ryoung57

    ryoung57 Off his meds

    If nobody owns cars, preferring to share instead, how do we haul our bikes to the track?
     
  16. R Acree

    R Acree Banned

    You share dummy.
     
  17. 2blueYam

    2blueYam Track Day Addict

    That is why the Tesla model is a good one. Oops, we left a security hole. Time to send out a patch. Way better than having a recall where you have to schedule and take the vehicle back to the dealer to fix something like that. Look for more manufacturers to start copying that soon. I am betting most dealer service departments won't care as they don't make anything on recalls anyway.

    As to the "grid" it will get hacked at least once before it becomes mandatory. Maybe once or twice after that. People will still die in car accidents, but it will be far fewer than today.
     
  18. As long as the automated cars still run on gasoline and need oil, im good with it. :D
     
    crashman likes this.
  19. Mechdziner714

    Mechdziner714 More Gas Less Brakes

    When you get run over by a driverless car, it will still be your fault.
     
  20. sdiver

    sdiver Well-Known Member

    Cars shared the roads with horse drawn buggies, so it will be with self driven and regular cars. You'll see self driven cars everywhere in 5 years with a 20 year transition. In the near term, cars will offer both driver controlled and self-driving options. Then ride share will gain in popularity until at least 1/2 of all passenger traveled miles are ride share in the US at the end of the 20 years.

    Motorcycles are toys so while there will be self driven options, expect them to mostly still be used in rider controlled mode.
     

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