It was fun while it lasted...

I hope you guys got all of your real estate transactions out of the way. Because here comes the late 70's - early 80's interest rates....

https://www.yahoo.com/money/mortgage-rates-hit-highest-housing-163507651.html

US housing starts at a peak.



Durable goods have probably peaked as well.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGORDER

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER



Next stop.....the new Dust Bowl. See you guys in Cala-Forn-eee in a couple years. Maybe we can pick fruit.

 

I was (actually still am) hoping to get a reasonable fixed rate equity loan to consolidate a few things and facilitate some improvements I want to do.

Won't kill me if it doesn't happen, but I really want that 40x60 metal building...

 

It's different this time...

 

Yes, going to get crazy. Purchased a house last year that I thought was slightly out of my comfort zone financially. The interest rate was so dang good it was affordable. Now if I TRIED to buy the same amount of the loan, payment would be over $300 dollars more a month.

Buckle up, I see 2008 issues on the horizon but worse....

 

I’m expecting to have paid off the house in 8 months and no intentions of selling. I can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

 

That’s like complaining about race entry fees. If $300 a month is gonna make or break then maybe it’s not the right move to begin with.

 

Bought my first house in 2002 and made exactly $20 on it (despite putting $40K of improvements into it) when I sold it in 2012 as housing prices were just barely starting to recover.

Bought current house at the literal trough of the last dip in November of 2012 so I timed that rather well.

On track to pay current house off within 7 years and plan to just ride this out.........but yea I think this is going to get real bad.

 

Just signed a sale contract last night, and the buyer has traditional financing with 50% down, so... fingers crossed

 

Look up “changing world order” by billionaire ray dalio and the lex Friedman interview with billionaire Michael saylor

 

Who is complaining? Was a statement of fact.

To some, $216,000 on a loan might be considered substantial. Interest rates will only continue to climb.

 

It sure is to me, but most people (like my wife) will look at it like "it's only $38 a month, it is what it is"

 

Not yet building soon and hating this. Though I am hoping the amount left not paid for is low.

 

Anybody with any connection to reality has seen this coming for quite some time. 8 years left on our house, 4.5 years left at 1.9%. We'll see what we get at renewal, but we should be in good shape the weather that storm should the interest rates be in double digits when we renew. I almost did another 7 year renewal at 2.2% and might wish that I did. It's all the other things associated with rising rates I'm concerned about. It'll be tough, but we'll get through it. I have some friends and family that are going to be in for a very rude awakening, as they life their lives (beyond their means) on cheap borrowed money.

This is the math problem from high school where we all said "but when are we ever going to use this stuff". If 2 trains are 100 miles apart but moving towards each other, and train A is moving @ 1 mph, and train B is moving at 2mph, how much time will pass before the massive train wreck. Bonus question. How many goods can you remove from said trains before the massive crash.

 

Dude -my first mortgage in the late 80's was 10.5%. Current house is on a fixed rate somewhere around 4% that will be paid off in about 48 months. The split between interest and principal is so skewed at this point in the life of the loan that it made no point to re-fi.

 

supply chain is normalizing, housing supply is slated to normalize in 2024 based on some current analysis, economy overall already showing first signs of retraction coming... recessionary trends + interest rates + supply increasing = rates retracting to follow.

you pearl clutching Nancy's need to calm down... might be a few years and a percent or two higher, but not gonna be the 80s. equilibrium rates will probably settle around 4.5-5% in a few years after this crests here. just relax and only shit yourself if you have to sign a mortgage like 3 months from now haha.

 

Yeah, we're well past the 50/50 point. I wish we had the 1.9% rate from the beginning. I think out first rate was 3.4% and I remember looking at the interest/principal split (1st house) and thinking about calling the police as a burglary was taking place lol. When our 1.9 rate is up, whatever they throw at us won't make much of a monthly difference.

If you are a first time home buyer it certainly pays to throw some extra money at the principal if you have it. We started doubling the principal at the 5 year mark frankly because we were broke those first couple years, and it knocked 10 years off the life of the loan. Every little bit makes a difference.

 

I built a new house and shop in 17’. Wouldn’t do it today, the numbers would be ridiculous. Also, watching a few houses being built close by, the pace they are building is slooooow.

 

Materials and labor shortage perhaps?

 

That makes the assumption that this only affects people who are buying houses. There will also be impacts in the rental market, and individuals who don't have strong enough credit will find it difficult to obtain a lease. We're already seeing that in my area. I've got a few employees that are in that boat, and they've been left with very few options (and I pay them well above market for their positions). Sounds like they're going to pool funds and buy a mobile home, but that's going to be a tough deal for all of them.

 

You’ll own nothing…and be happy.