I think the rest of the Honder riders may be in more trouble than anything, because none of them could ride the 2019 bike and might have hoping for a friendlier package for 2020. MM will be fine on the old bike if need be.
The Yamaha boys are looking good, but I don't know how much I can trust these times as the temps will be different during the actual race. Dovi was no where to be found during the 2019 Qatar test and he won the race 2 weeks later. Vinales won the test, but finished 7th in the race...
I think the fact the Yamahas and the Suzukis have been consistently on top at both tests in both race pace and single lap shows there is real speed there. In by-yourself-pace I think HRC and Ducati are actually in trouble, and HRC is in trouble period. But what is to be seen yet is how the race shakes out, can the v4s get in and mess with the i4s and disrupt that pace? At Qatar I am not so sure because of the wide flowing nature of the track.
It's all lies. The HRC Honda is always the best bike in the field. The bike everyone should want to be on. Every year. It rides itself to victory. Anyone who can't win at least a couple of races from it is an abject failure.
The chart above is "Average" fastest laps, which can be considered a "what if" for racing. It doesn't show consecutive pace or race simulations, which will highlight those with better tire management. Also, remember Jeremy McWilliams on pole with the Proton at Phillips Island in 2002? He finished 10th in the race. Fast alone is different than fast in the group (as Lorenzo so professionally showed during his Yamaha years of getting in front to win). So, yes, the Suzuki and Yamaha are killers at fast laps. But until they can manage a tire for a race in a group the results remain to be seen... But you all knew this already.
Final combined times across all three days: Pos No Rider Bike Time Diff Prev 1 12 Maverick Viñales Yamaha M1 1:53.858 2 21 Franco Morbidelli Yamaha M1 1:53.891 0.033 0.033 3 20 Fabio Quartararo Yamaha M1 1:54.038 0.180 0.147 4 42 Alex Rins Suzuki GSX-RR 1:54.068 0.210 0.030 5 43 Jack Miller Ducati GP20 1:54.105 0.247 0.037 6 36 Joan Mir Suzuki GSX-RR 1:54.129 0.271 0.024 7 93 Marc Márquez Honda RC213V 1:54.149 0.291 0.020 8 30 Takaaki Nakagami Honda RC213V 1:54.239 0.381 0.090 9 33 Brad Binder KTM RC16 1:54.283 0.425 0.044 10 4 Andrea Dovizioso Ducati GP20 1:54.312 0.454 0.029 11 63 Francesco Bagnaia Ducati GP20 1:54.326 0.468 0.014 12 46 Valentino Rossi Yamaha M1 1:54.332 0.474 0.006 13 41 Aleix Espargaro Aprilia RS-GP 1:54.432 0.574 0.100 14 5 Johann Zarco Ducati GP19 1:54.565 0.707 0.133 15 44 Pol Espargaro KTM RC16 1:54.623 0.765 0.058 16 9 Danilo Petrucci Ducati GP20 1:54.634 0.776 0.011 17 53 Tito Rabat Ducati GP19 1:54.674 0.816 0.040 18 35 Cal Crutchlow Honda RC213V 1:54.830 0.972 0.156 19 88 Miguel Oliveira KTM RC16 1:55.008 1.150 0.178 20 27 Iker Lecuona KTM RC16 1:55.301 1.443 0.293 21 73 Alex Márquez Honda RC213V 1:55.519 1.661 0.218 22 38 Bradley Smith Aprilia RS-GP 1:55.916 2.058 0.397
But wait, there's more: https://www.crash.net/motogp/news/936533/1/marquez-great-step-after-being-completely-lost
For comparisons sake, here are the combined times from a year ago: Pos No Rider Bike Time Diff Prev 1 12 Maverick Viñales Yamaha M1 1:54.208 2 20 Fabio Quartararo Yamaha M1 1:54.441 0.233 0.233 3 42 Alex Rins Suzuki GSX-RR 1:54.593 0.385 0.152 4 93 Marc Marquez Honda RC213V 1:54.613 0.405 0.020 5 46 Valentino Rossi Yamaha M1 1:54.651 0.443 0.038 6 99 Jorge Lorenzo Honda RC213V 1:54.653 0.445 0.002 7 21 Franco Morbidelli Yamaha M1 1:54.660 0.452 0.007 8 44 Pol Espargaro KTM RC16 1:54.770 0.562 0.110 9 30 Takaaki Nakagami Honda RC213V 1:54.789 0.581 0.019 10 9 Danilo Petrucci Ducati GP19 1:54.818 0.610 0.029 11 43 Jack Miller Ducati GP19 1:54.851 0.643 0.033 12 36 Joan Mir Suzuki GSX-RR 1:54.997 0.789 0.146 13 63 Francesco Bagnaia Ducati GP18 1:55.074 0.866 0.077 14 41 Aleix Espargaro Aprilia RS-GP 1:55.173 0.965 0.099 15 4 Andrea Dovizioso Ducati GP19 1:55.205 0.997 0.032 16 53 Tito Rabat Ducati GP18 1:55.229 1.021 0.024 17 35 Cal Crutchlow Honda RC213V 1:55.247 1.039 0.018 18 29 Andrea Iannone Aprilia RS-GP 1:55.343 1.135 0.096 19 5 Johann Zarco KTM RC16 1:55.716 1.508 0.373 20 88 Miguel Oliveira KTM RC16 1:55.773 1.565 0.057 21 17 Karel Abraham Ducati GP18 1:55.951 1.743 0.178 22 38 Bradley Smith Aprilia RS-GP 1:56.072 1.864 0.121 23 55 Hafizh Syahrin KTM RC16 1:56.371 2.163 0.299 I really don't think anything above is going to truly going to upset the apple cart. MM is still going to be the clear favorite, the Yamahas/Rins/Ducati may occasionally threaten, but in the end I still don't see anybody truly challenging him over a full season where he is a consistent podium finisher. The rest of these guys will have minor flashes of brilliance, but barring anything with his shoulder putting a significant damper on his physical condition, MM gonna bring it home yet again.
So in 2019 MM93 was .405 behind best time and this year he is .291 behind. Yep he is definitely in trouble.
That little twat is done. Put a fork in it. Season's over. Its going to be either Rossi or Quarteroo.
Heh heh, combined times Yamaha 1, 2, 3, and ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................12
Which brings up an interesting philosophical quandary. If there's no racing going on is it really Sunday?