Stocks.....what d'ya got?

Wouldn't that be insider trading, and then I'd be sharing a jail cell with Martha Stewart? Then again, I'm kind of attracted to MILF's and I've always found her cute so maybe that wouldn't be so bad

 

If I'm not mistaken, it's only insider trading, if your wife has specific information not generally available to us knuckleheads, like they are about to get aquired and she knows or works for the acquiring company.

 

Oh I know, I was just having some fun and fantasizing about a young Martha Stewart

 

10XITB

 

we stay outside

 

Wow, never knew what she looked like at a younger age.

 

She was a star in the video "Angel is a Centerfold" (title?) by J. Geils Band.

 

Bet she made a mean sammich afterwards too

 

Hoping this GrubHub stock shoots back up to where it was last September. Bought a pile of it Monday and it's up $6 a share in three days

 

too much msft

 

Wishing I had Allergan stock two days ago. Shit jumped 25% in 1 day with the news they are being acquired for 64B dollars.

 

Eatin' the dog food?

 

Yep. I'm unbalanced in the portfolio as a result.

 

I’ve got a ton of oilfield related stocks, just hoping for another boom.

There are tons of stocks selling for $1-10 per share, that were worth $20-65 about 5 years ago (before the downturn).

They’ve been up and down over the past couple of years, but I’m long on all of them.

The oilfield always goes up and down in cycles of about 5-7 years. Been like that from day one. If the stocks I own get anywhere near what they were 5 years ago, I will be (even more) hell to deal with at work because I won’t have to be there anymore.

 

Broome when oil tops $90/bbl again....

 

General Motors, Ford, Fastenal, Tallgrass Energy, Sanchez Midstream, and Harvest Health. I choose all of them for their dividends and long term investment except for the Harvest Health. Hoping with the way pot is taking off across the country that it'll blossom into something like Google.

 

I KNOW it goes in cycles, always has and always will...because of greed.

1. The price of oil goes up, and companies see the potential for big profits (oil boom).
2. The companies flood the market with drilling rigs, trying to “get while the getting is good”.
3. So many rigs drilling causes a surplus of oil reserves. That causes the price of oil to drop (supply vs demand).
4. As the price of oil drops, companies stop drilling because it isn’t profitable.
5. Depending on the length of the boom, the downturn will typically last 1-3 years. During that time, world oil consumption remains the same as always, but because of the low oil cost, there is very little drilling. At some point, the oil reserves begin to be depleted.
6. The depletion of the reserves causes the price of oil to go back up (supply vs demand).

Go back to step one and repeat.

I dumped about $60k into oilfield related stocks back when the downturn was at its lowest point, and shares were going for pennies on the dollar (compared to their normal prices).

Now I’m just sitting on them, waiting for the boom next cycle. Most analysts predict we are about 1.5-2 years from the next boom.

They are worth a more than they were when I bought them, but nowhere near high enough for me to unass them.

 

It’s all caused by greed.

Say oil was sitting at $75bbl, and rig day rates were around $300k a day. If people weren’t greedy, that would be profitable for everyone involved (Contractors and Operators), and the market would remain stable for years and years.

Worldwide oil consumption is relatively steady/consistent. What causes market fluctuations is the amount of oil available.

So if companies would be ok making a “decent” profit forever, things would be fine. But that isn’t how humans work. If a little is good, then more would be great.

At one point oil was well over $100/bbl, and day rates reached $500k-$700k a day. Then companies thought “If we are making this kind of profit with 20 rigs making $500k/day, just imagine if we had 40 rigs”.

The market was flooded like never before due to greed, and as a result we are just now crawling out of the worst and longest oilfield recession in history.

 

Gamblers gamble. No guarantees out there.

Look up bogleheads, and Whitecoatinvestor. I’m not affiliated, but some good starting points. Everyone is in a different place.

Past performance, and so on. You can run analytics all day. Most of you will lose.