It was fun while it lasted...

Figuring out how much the bubble will pop will be very location dependent. Some places will get a small correction, and some will take a huge bath. This is how it was in 2008, but the areas will be different this time. Knowing where it will just be a little pop, versus a huge bust is the trick.

My guess: the Washington DC area, homes in 55+ communities, and retirement areas in FL, AZ, and NV will not see a big bust in home prices. Parts of CO will be in there too as they were very short inventory even before supply shortages hit. I am sure I am missing some places as well because as I am not familiar with enough of what is driving the individual markets all over the US.

 

Newark,NJ is trying to stop corporations from buying homes

https://abc7ny.com/newark-mayor-ras-baraka-corporations-buying-homes-real-estate/11817402/

 

Here's another view of home price data: Case Shiller Index.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA

If you look the year 2000 = 100. The peak of '06-07 was ~185. It then dropped back down to 136 in 2012. It hit 185 again in Dec 2016. Its currently at 289.

So the last bubble was a gain from 100 to 185 in ~6 years. 6 years ago we were at 185 and now we are at 289...an even bigger increase.

How much longer is this housing bubble sustainable? Its kinda of an MLM or ponzi scheme. If enough people are buying in at the bottom the peak will keep climbing. How many people can afford houses in this market?

My bet is its slowing. The recent interest rate increases wont help.

 

Oh yes it will.

All those variable rate mortgages will start to spike and when the payday loan companies stop floating mortgage payments, the dominoes will fall anew.

If only we had a relief plan for troubled assets we could have learned from oh those many years ago…

 

Counterpoint to the doom and gloom. Most of us in the finance world are mostly expecting a little gloom, but not doom. I think this article covers it pretty well. The factors present in 2008 are quite a bit different than in previous economic cycles, at least from my perspective working in RE lending (obviously biased). Though truthfully, I wouldn't mind a crash, as I tend to make lots more money when everyone is freaked out than when the squiggly lines are all going upwards.

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-dont-compare-the-current?s=r

 

the lofts in dtla aren’t being snatched up by Wall Street. only idiots like me want to buy something in downtown Los Angeles. I should be fine. I’m going to continue to rent though even afterward. I plan on using the place I buy for an airbnb and using the profits to pay my rent and mortgage then focus on buying a small property somewhere by the water and build a not so tiny house

 

The 50 million $ home I posted a few months ago is relisted at 28 million now.
We're fucked

 

just hyped vs real price?

 

The house right next to mine just sold for $665,000
It sold new in 2008 for $355,000 then in 2014 for $473,000
Completely nuts.

 

so where you moving to ?

 

No where. I got an upgrade with these new neighbors. Younger couple and very nice, good peeps. I have great neighbors all the way around and across the street now.
They are all kids having kids. I’m the old fart working on their lawn mowers, sharpening blades and doing oil changes and fixing irrigation heads for them etc. I don’t think two of the guys even have any tools above a hammer and screw driver. These dudes are in late 20s early 30s and mechanically void. I made three cases of beer last year. LOL

 

I paid $205k for my 1500sq/ft 4 bed 2 bath in 2020 and there's a new subdivision being constructed just one street over that's full of homes around 1500sq/ft. I think they're being listed early for $450-500k.

 

Cash is king but there are a lot of sellers who will pass on a cash offer from a corp and sell to a pre-qualified family. My wife sees that frequently. And i don't see mass layoffs coming. Most larger companies are still fighting for new hires with signing bonuses and other incentives. We currently have 13 openings where i work all for jobs that pay at least 22/hr with full benefits.

 

That's a million-dollar house if your house is vacant.

 

LOL mechanically void. Poor souls. Tell them to stop buying you crap beer

 

Not too far from where I live...

https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local...yf_hms0axnjIb16NoY94SKAZofyaTcmW3qpv6n2IykFwY

 

Don't forget to report it.

 

I prefer the term mechanically declined.

 

Neighbor came over the other day saying he got a dirtbike for his kid. The first thing that came to my mind was "oh fuck it's a chinese knock off". Sure as shit it was. They said they put gas in it and pulled the pullstarter 1000 times and it won't start. So I pull the fuel hose off the carb. No gas coming out. I pull the tank and drain the gas and the nipple on the tank where the fuel line goes is completely closed with plastic. So I drilled that bitch out, put the fuel line back on the kids is tearing up the yards with my kids now. We have 3 houses in a row with 5 / 6 year olds ripping little dirtbikes. It's awesome. I just drink beer in the garage and wait for one of them to crash.

 

Soon me and Spitfire the Sheltie will be on our porch flipping people off that go by on US64. Hopefully the neighbors stay away. ESPECIALLY the crazy cat lady up the street, figure the Shelties will deter her roommates in short order.