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Covid19 PSA

Discussion in 'General' started by R Acree, Mar 10, 2020.

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  1. wiggeywackyo

    wiggeywackyo Well-Known Member

    No offense, but why do I get the feeling that you've never traveled anywhere outside of the US and Mexican resorts before?
     
  2. SPL170db

    SPL170db Trackday winner


    I saw this same type of analysis done by someone else about a week and 1/2 ago and they came to a similar timeframe in early April as well.



    Winston-Salem is only showing 15 official cases and Charlottesville 6 at the moment. Hopefully mitigation steps have slowed things down sufficiently in those areas for the time being.
     
  3. kevincg

    kevincg Well-Known Member

    I am not sure why you feel that way. I do not frequent resorts.

    I have been to both Italy and India,a s well as Peru and Costa Rica on mission trips. You see how people really live in the majority of these places (other than Italy) not typically shown on TV and in brochures.
     
  4. baconologist

    baconologist Well-Known Member

    ....
     
  5. Montoya

    Montoya Well-Known Member

    It was posted in the Dungeon thread, beginning of the month. Link is here.

    Considering that the CDC has 54,453 cases listed on their website for today (3/25). Looking back at the data analysis, it's painfully disturbing that... so far, the projections have been more than accurate. Unfortunately with the lack of social distancing... we're also literally off the charts.


    [​IMG]

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    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
  6. SPL170db

    SPL170db Trackday winner

    200 NYPD officers have tested + thus far.
     
  7. notbostrom

    notbostrom DaveK broke the interwebs

    NYC was doomed from the start between China Town and the subway system. Thankfully in this case few other cities have both dynamics
     
  8. wiggeywackyo

    wiggeywackyo Well-Known Member

    Just seem like some rather simple takes with no nuance to them.
     
  9. In Your Corner

    In Your Corner Dungeonesque Crab AI Version

  10. SPL170db

    SPL170db Trackday winner

  11. L8RSK8R

    L8RSK8R Well-Known Member

    India is gonna be devasted by this.
     
  12. In Your Corner

    In Your Corner Dungeonesque Crab AI Version

    What significance does that have? Are those people dying? No. It's still the old and sick who die.


    Since we're talking numbers...
    Are U.S. Flu Death Figures More PR Than Science?

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/12/051210120020.htm
     
  13. Monsterdood

    Monsterdood Well-Known Member

    Thanks for posting that. I think this is close to the analysis we should be thinking about. A couple of thoughts are that we could grow the number of beds by commandeering empty hotels or building military temp hospitals. But we may run out of PPE and then medical professionals to tend all these beds and of course the ventilators we’ve heard about. Once we are short of doctors and nurses, this thing could accelerate.

    You change the rate of the speed (the exponential factor) by changing how many interactions infected people have with others. Lock everyone in a separate room for 2 weeks and the factor goes to nearly zero. Get back to lots of social interactions, the factor could go up more than the guy estimated. I sincerely hope not, but our growth rate sucks lately.

    One last reminder, deaths trail the infection data by 2-3 weeks. So you can predict future deaths by looking at current infections. When you see that 1-2 people died today in a certain area, it’s because there was probably around 100 infections 2-3 weeks ago.
     
  14. SPL170db

    SPL170db Trackday winner


    It's interesting you bring that up....was just reading about that. About how our published flu death numbers are not really hard and fast statistics, they are estimation and associations. "Flu-associated-death" as the nomenclature goes. I guess that's part of the reason why the numbers of "flu deaths" the CDC reports are always a rounded off and even number like 40,000 not 39,862 or something like that. Basically that the number of people who actually die from just the flu is likely to be lower than what they report.
     
  15. Montoya

    Montoya Well-Known Member

    The significance is that they’re referring to, or many of the recent articles are, people who need advanced medical care such as ICU & ventilators. Yes, young healthy people (who need advanced care) tend to survive, but they’re still requiring extensive resources that are almost exhausted.
     
  16. G 97

    G 97 Garth

    I’m sure the real world loves you. :crackup:
     
  17. In Your Corner

    In Your Corner Dungeonesque Crab AI Version

    I'm not seeing any of that, if you have some hard facts and not anecdotes or generalizations, I'd love to see them.
     
  18. R1Racer99

    R1Racer99 Well-Known Member

    Kevincg, Baconologist, and In your corner Vs. Dr. Fauci, can’t decide who to believe.
     
    beac83, Slider82, Chino52405 and 3 others like this.
  19. baconologist

    baconologist Well-Known Member

    People with critical thinking abilities realize this isn’t a Vs. topic.
     
    Quicktoy likes this.
  20. Quicktoy

    Quicktoy Is it Winter yet?

    We had a bunch of guys get their 4473s in last week on some guns we can’t release yet but in case nics went down, we already have an approval for them
     
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