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Covid19 PSA

Discussion in 'General' started by R Acree, Mar 10, 2020.

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  1. baconologist

    baconologist Well-Known Member

    Man that sure sounds like what I remember of the USSR
     
  2. kevincg

    kevincg Well-Known Member

    Agreed. Hi School only got me so far with Speeling
     
  3. motion

    motion Nihilistic Member

    I was looking at the data for San Marino. Wow, they are the hardest hit in the world. 21 deaths among their very small population. I can just imagine how those people are hiding in their homes.
     
  4. ts199

    ts199 Well-Known Member

    I was stating that the media only hypes stories because big number respond and watch. The more that watch, the more money they can charge for advertising and therefore make.

    I was saying don’t blame the media for wanting to make as much money as possible. It’s the American way.

    Not sure, but I think you might be saying we should do nothing and move on, nothing to see here correct?
     
  5. kevincg

    kevincg Well-Known Member

    I am ONLY talking about the US. We are far healthier and better overall health care and general hygiene than most of these other countries. We also do not have socialized medicine (yet).

    Italy: Everyone smokes, greets each other with kissing/hugging, lesser hygiene generally. Many people in close confines in their older cities. Large, older population.
    China: Same as above, but with deplorable conditions. No hygiene and starvation by most standards meaning they will eat almost anything. Oh, and under communist rule, so they are completely expendable.
    India: Less hygiene (wipe with the left hand, eat w/ the right). Very poor. Deplorable false religion that worships food walking around while people starve.
     
  6. baconologist

    baconologist Well-Known Member

    Absolutely thats the course that should have been taken. If this has (as some studies suggest) been circulating since Dec-Jan. Then many, many more than the current count have been infected. Which throws all data and models out the window.
     
    tony 340 likes this.
  7. auminer

    auminer Renaissance Redneck

  8. SPL170db

    SPL170db Trackday winner

    Jersey....sliding up into 2nd place behind NY for total case count. Not that I can imagine that Cali has less actual cases than us.
     
  9. kevincg

    kevincg Well-Known Member

    No, but the response to shut down the economy was absolutely foolish. The cure was far worse than any true pandemic. Look and see what the previous admin did when Eboli, H1N1 or Bird /Swine flu was a threat. Check the numbers affected by that and tell me if you even remember those being a big deal.
     
  10. Jed

    Jed mellifluous

    ICUs here in Atlanta are full. No respirator for u!
     
  11. TWF2

    TWF2 2 heads are better than 1

    You think our economy could have gone full steam while rest of the world is shut down?
     
    tony 340 and Gorilla George like this.
  12. Slider82

    Slider82 Well-Known Member

    Damn nice of all those people in other countries dying purely out of hatred for Trump.
     
    ts199, Sabre699, scottn and 4 others like this.
  13. tzrider

    tzrider CZrider

    Somebody found his liquor cabinet....
     
    tony 340 likes this.
  14. kevincg

    kevincg Well-Known Member

    The local small business would not be closed if not for being forced to do so, so Yes. US largely runs on small business.
     
  15. SPL170db

    SPL170db Trackday winner


    Not that I dispute any of what you mentioned, but just curious what locations they are in. My cousin is a radiologist at the local hospital here in NJ and he said the place has been nuts. They had 8 staff members that had to be isolated due to infection, and that was a week ago.
     
  16. Montoya

    Montoya Well-Known Member

    You're free to have the opinion that shuttering the economy is foolish. But as been mentioned ad nauseam, even within this thread, the mortality rate is not what set this apart from those other outbreaks. It's a false analogy fallacy at best.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
  17. auminer

    auminer Renaissance Redneck

    Really smaaht friend of mine (Hahhvahhd grad, teaches somewhere up in the Ivies, I think) wrote this. I respect this guy's input. I've seen him be right about the 2007 crash with actual specifics, not just anecdotal bullshit, but real numbers. Dude could've been in the movie The Big Short if that was his bent...

    Anyway. I hope to shit that he's wrong. Let's see if this cut & paste from the facetoobz works:

    ***********************************

    THE “WHEN WILL THE SH*T HIT THE FAN” POST

    Hello all.

    I have been running projections for US infection numbers for coronavirus. I thought I’d share them, because several of you have asked me to.

    I want to present my latest conclusions as well as to explain in detail how I got these calculations so that anyone can repeat them using different assumptions.

    So, first, how do I define “hitting the fan”?

    I’ve decided on two ways:

    (1) The US runs out of free hospital beds.
    (2) The US arrives where Italy is today (since I think we can all agree that it has hit the fan in Italy.)

    (1) WHEN THE US RUNS OUT OF FREE HOSPITAL BEDS

    There are currently about 320,540 free hospital beds in the US.

    I came to this number in the following way:

    According to the AHA website, there are currently 924,000 staffed hospital beds in the US. I rounded this up to 940,000 to be on the conservative side.

    https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals

    I used the average percentage of free beds in 2017 (34.1%) from the following website:

    https://www.statista.com/…/hospital-occupancy-rate-in-the…/…

    940,000*0.349 = 320,540

    I am also making the assumption, based on past data from China, that 20% of those infected with coronavirus will need to he hospitalized. (If you assume only 10% will need to be hospitalized, this will only change the date projections by between 2 and 5 days. This number doesn’t matter that much. It’s the exponential growth that matters.)

    If you assume that, then we will need to have 1,602,700 active cases in the US to overwhelm all the hospital beds in the US since 1,602,700*.20 = 320,540

    WHEN will all these free hospital beds be full?

    The next thing I did was get the full data set for US confirmed cases, which Johns Hopkins has assembled. From line 227 in this database:

    https://github.com/…/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.c…

    The first US case was reported January 27. As of March 24, there were 62 days of data.

    Then I ran an exponential best fit regression using the following online tool. You could also use Matlab or the program of your choice:

    http://www.xuru.org/rt/ExpR.asp#CopyPaste

    I did two fits.

    The first was for all 62 days of data. Here is the result I got:

    y = 0.0012e^(0.2795x)
    R^2 = .9944

    This is a 32.248% daily growth rate with an excellent fit to the exponential function.

    The second fit was for the last 21 days ONLY prior to and including March 23.

    y = 0.0002e^(.3072x)
    R^2 = .9970

    This is a 35.954% daily growth rate.

    The fit to the exponential for the last 21 days is even better than for the full data set.

    As of March 24, there were 55041 confirmed cases in the US as reported by Johns Hopkins.

    If you project this forward under both assumptions--- 32.248% and 35.954% daily growth-- you get 1.6 million cases on the following dates:

    32.248%: April 5
    35.954%: April 4

    If you assume a much more conservative growth rate (just for fun)—say 22%--- then you get the following date:

    22%: April 10

    Of course, the cases won’t be evenly distributed. Some places will be harder hit. Therefore it makes sense to me that some cities will have every hospital bed full before these dates.

    Three comments:

    1) There has been some talk that we are seeing so many more reported cases now because we are starting to test more people. If you look at the fit of all 62 days of data, you get an average daily growth of 32.25%, but if you fit only the last three weeks, you get 35.95%.

    It is possible that the increase in testing has caused reported case numbers to rise. But I’m not sure if these fits reflect that. Here’s why: If you fit only the last three weeks of data, the fit is excellent, with an R squared of .997. I suspect that IF this higher growth rate over the last three weeks were a reflection of new testing coming on line—which has been sporadic and geographically distributed—I would guess that you would see that in the data being less than perfectly exponential. You don’t. The fit to the last three weeks of data is actually even better than when fitting the whole 62 days worth of data.

    2) HOWEVER, even if the increase in the rate is because of increased testing, it is not that much higher—maybe 3-5 percentage points. Even if you assume the actual rate of new cases is 10 percentage points lower than the best fit – 22% versus 32%--- we are talking a five day difference in the predicted date of when every hospital bed will be full.

    3) Whether it is April 5 or April 10 when we reach 1.6 million cases, we won’t stop at that number. The growth rate won’t reach zero in the next three weeks. We’ll blow past those 1.6 million cases. How far past we blow through that number will determine how bad this will be.

    As of March 24, there is NO indication that things are slowing down. The fit to the data actually indicate that things are speeding up.

    (2) WHEN THE US REACHES WHERE ITALY IS TODAY

    Italy has about 69,176 cases as of March 25. Italy has about 60 million people. The US will reach the same rate of cases to population that Italy is dealing with when we have 374,240 cases.

    Under these three assumptions, the US reaches these number of cases on the following dates:

    22%: April 3
    32.25%: March 31
    35.954%: March 31

    DISCUSSION

    I don’t have much to add here. The numbers speak for themselves.

    I think we’re going to have a huge problem in the next 1 to 3 weeks. I don’t think people really understand how bad this could be.

    If the rate of infection does not slow down, in only two weeks there will be 3 million Americans infected. In three weeks there will be 19 million. In four weeks--in four weeks-- 137,000,000 Americans will be infected. 1/3 of Americans will be infected one month from now.

    The COVID-19 mortality rate in other countries has varied widely, from 0.51% in Germany to 2.3% in China and 7.2% in Italy. Even if the US mortality rate ends up being only 1%, if 19 million become infected, we might have 190,000 fatalities.

    In my opinion, the only chance we have of slowing this down in the next three weeks is for everyone in the country to STAY AT HOME AND DON’T LEAVE except for absolute emergencies.

    We need to do that NOW.

    RIGHT NOW.

    PS

    I welcome comments and critiques of this analysis.

    I WANT to be wrong.

    PPS I created the following petition to try to spread the word about social distancing. If you feel so inclined, please read it, sign it and share it. It's almost too late to matter at this point, but we have to try!

    http://chng.it/4PhV4WDW

    This is the data in a plot. X-axis is days since January 22 (the day the US had its first case.) Y-axis is number of confirmed cases.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. kevincg

    kevincg Well-Known Member

    Winston-Salem NC and Charlottesville VA
     
  19. notbostrom

    notbostrom DaveK broke the interwebs

    Seeing Spain and Italy surpass China's numbers tells me China definitely isn't telling the truth
     
  20. baconologist

    baconologist Well-Known Member

    @auminer
    Good read, but he’s only working from the known data. I know, i know......
    Even here in this thread we’ve seen testimonials that place an unknown, non-flu flu as early as late November. That would skew his timeline significantly before adding in the undiagnosed.
     
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